Presidential Candidate Platforms

Topic Pages

• Tax Reform
• Jobs and Business Policy
• Health Policy
• Drug Policy
• Middle East
• Trade
• Immigration
• Environmental
• Entrepreneurship and Innovation
• Monetary Policy
• Religion
• Quotes

Candidates

Republican	Current Poll Number	IEM Price	PredictIt Price
Donald Trump	36.2	40	49
Ted Cruz	19.4	16	16
Marco Rubio	10.8	25.7	27
Ben Carson	8.2	0.1	1
Jeb Bush	4.8	-	8
Chris Christie	3.8	-	3
John Kasich	2.6	-	4
Carly Fiorina	2	-	1

Democratic	Current Poll Number	IEM Price	PredictIt Price
Hillary Clinton	52.5	68.2	70
Bernie Sanders	37.2	27	28
Martin O'Malley	2.2	4	1

Drop Outs
Rick Santorum
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee

Poll numbers taken from real clear politics [1] [2]

Prediction market prices are reported in cents.

• PredictIt Republican [3] and Democratic [4] nomination data
• Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Republican [5] and Democratic [6] market data

Debates

Democratic Party Primary Debates

Date	Transcript	Link to Highlights
13-Oct-15	Las Vegas, NV	10-13-15
14-Nov-15	Des Moines, IA	11-14-15
19-Dec-15	Manchester, NH	12-19-15
17-Jan-16	Charleston, SC	01-17-16
11-Feb-16	TBD, WI
9-Mar-16	Miami, FL

Republican Party Primary Debates

Date	Transcript	Link to Highlights
6-Aug-15	Cleveland, OH	08-06-15
16-Sep-15	Semi Valley, CA	09-16-15
28-Oct-15	Boulder, CO	10-28-15
10-Nov-15	Milwaukee, WI	11-10-15
15-Dec-15	Las Vegas, NV	12-15-15
14-Jan-16	North Charleston, SC	01-14-16
28-Jan-16	Des Moines, Iowa	01-28-16
6-Feb-16	Manchester, NH
13-Feb-16	Greenville, SC
26-Feb-16	Houston, TX
10-Mar-16	TBD, FL

Caucus Results

Iowa Caucus

Super Tuesday is on March 1st. A nice chart of when each state votes and how is available from the The Economist.

Polls

Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP. His polls have risen steadily since late May 2015. Trump has held the Republican lead throughout the primary, excluding a brief period in November 2015 when Ben Carson rose within 1% of Trump. Since that spike, Carson's numbers have dipped, and the most recent poll numbers place Carson in fourth. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, polling second and third respectively, have both demonstrated gradual increases in poll numbers since September 2015. Starting the election process as a clear GOP front runner, Jeb Bush has experienced a gradual decline to under 5%. The remaining GOP candidates,including Christie, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Santorum, are each polling below 4%. (USA)

Hillary Clinton polls as the Democratic front runner. She has maintained a lead in the polls since the beginning of her campaign. Her poll numbers dropped between July-September 2015, but have been on the rise since then. Bernie Sanders comes in second, with his numbers steadily on the rise since spring and summer of 2015. Martin O'Malley's numbers have remained relatively flat and have not risen above 5%. (USA)

For the most up to date Presidential Campaign poll data, see USA Today's Interactive Poll Tracker.

For data on U.S. political trends, see Pew Research Center's key indicators page.

Baker Institute Events

Ed's Presentation

Event 1: International Affairs

10th Feb 2016

Moderator: Allen Matusow

Panelists:

1. Middle East - Joe Barnes
2. Trade - Russell Green
3. Immigration - Tony Payan
4. Environmental - Ronald Sass

Event 2: Domestic Policy

16th Feb 2016

Moderator: Mark Jones

Panelists:

1. Tax Reform - John Diamond
2. Jobs and Business Policy - Ed Egan
3. Health Policy - Vivian Ho
4. Drug Policy - Bill Martin

Event Format

• Introduction (EPD or moderators)
• 10 minutes at the podium for each participant
  • slides preferred, so we can put them online afterwards. This will help direct media to our interests
  • strict time keeping, because most audience members want to get to the Q&A
• Moderated Q&A
  • let's aim to have the audience ask most of the questions, but the moderators should be prepared in case of lulls
• Finish about 8pm and adjourn to the reception

A template for the slides was sent out by email from Ed.

Helpful Links

Earlier versions and info from presidential candidate platforms wiki page

• OnTheIssues (good for quotes)

http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm

• Bing Political Index

https://www.bing.com/search?q=bing+political+index&qs=SS&pq=bing+poli&sc=8-9&sp=1&cvid=C807FAE42F3B41D1A75124B713D48522&FORM=QBRE&ghc=1

(USA) = http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/