Difference between revisions of "Winner's Curse in Acquisitions (Academic Paper)"
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| Line 310: | Line 310: | ||
* EXCHCD | * EXCHCD | ||
* SICCD | * SICCD | ||
| − | NCUSIP | + | *NCUSIP |
| − | TICKER | + | *TICKER |
| − | COMNAM | + | *COMNAM |
| − | NAICS | + | *NAICS |
| − | PRIMEXCH | + | *PRIMEXCH |
| − | PERMCO | + | *PERMCO |
| − | CUSIP | + | *CUSIP |
| − | PRC | + | *PRC |
| − | VOL | + | *VOL |
| − | RET | + | *RET |
| − | SHR | + | *SHR |
| − | OUT | + | *OUT |
| − | NUMTRD | + | *NUMTRD |
| − | vwretdPE | + | *vwretdPE |
| − | ewretd | + | *ewretd |
| + | CREATE TABLE CRSP ( | ||
| + | PermNo int, | ||
| + | date date, | ||
| + | EXcode int, | ||
| + | SIC int, | ||
| + | NCUSIP varchar(10), | ||
| + | Ticker varchar(10), | ||
| + | Name varchar(100), | ||
| + | NAICS int, | ||
| + | PrimEx varchar(1), | ||
| + | PERMCO int, | ||
| + | CUSIP varchar(12), | ||
| + | Price real, | ||
| + | VOL int, | ||
| + | RET real, | ||
| + | ShOut int, | ||
| + | trade int, | ||
| + | EQRET real, | ||
| + | VRET real); | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | The data file, crsp-oct10.txt, has a header in the first line. I couldn't find an argument for copy from function to account for this. So, I'll just delete the first line from the file and try again to copy the data into the crsp table. | ||
| + | |||
| + | tail -n +2 CRSP-oct10.txt > CRSP-oct10NH.stdout | ||
| + | |||
| + | I renamed the output to CRSP-NH, NH for no header. Let's take a look if the header is actually removed. | ||
| + | |||
| + | head -2 CRSP-NH.txt | ||
| + | |||
| + | output: | ||
| + | 10000 1986/01/06 7952 68391610 -0.000138 0.001926 | ||
| + | 10000 1986/01/07 3 3990 68391610 OMFGA OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC Q 7952 68391610 -2.56250 1000 C 3680 0.013809 0.011061 | ||
| + | |||
| + | Now, let's copy the data from CRSP-NH.txt into the CRSP table. | ||
| + | |||
| + | \COPY crsp FROM '/bulk/WinnersCurse/CRSP-NH.txt'; | ||
| + | ERROR: invalid input syntax for integer: "" | ||
| + | CONTEXT: COPY crsp, line 1, column excode: "" | ||
| + | |||
| + | To avoid problems such the one above, I'll just copy all the variables as varchar. | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | CREATE TABLE CRSPtmp ( | ||
| + | PermNo varchar(10), | ||
| + | date date, | ||
| + | EXcode varchar(10), | ||
| + | SIC varchar(10), | ||
| + | NCUSIP varchar(10), | ||
| + | Ticker varchar(10), | ||
| + | Name varchar(100), | ||
| + | NAICS varchar(10), | ||
| + | PrimEx varchar(1), | ||
| + | PERMCO varchar(10), | ||
| + | CUSIP varchar(12), | ||
| + | Price varchar(15), | ||
| + | VOL varchar(10), | ||
| + | RET varchar(10), | ||
| + | ShOut varchar(10), | ||
| + | trade varchar(10), | ||
| + | EQRET varchar(10), | ||
| + | VRET varchar(10)); | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | \COPY CRSPtmp FROM '/bulk/WinnersCurse/CRSP-NH.txt'; | ||
| + | COPY 64614281 | ||
| + | |||
| + | SELECT * FROM CRSPtmp limit 10; | ||
| + | |||
| + | permno | date | excode | sic | ncusip | ticker | name | naics | primex | permco | cusip | price | vol | ret | shout | trade | eqret | vret | ||
| + | --------+------------+--------+------+----------+--------+---------------------------+-------+--------+--------+----------+----------+-------+-----------+-------+-------+-----------+----------- | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-06 | | | | | | | | 7952 | 68391610 | | | | | | -0.000138 | 0.001926 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-07 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.56250 | 1000 | C | 3680 | | 0.013809 | 0.011061 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-08 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.50000 | 12800 | -0.024390 | 3680 | | -0.020744 | -0.005117 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-09 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.50000 | 1400 | 0.000000 | 3680 | | -0.011219 | -0.011588 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-10 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.50000 | 8500 | 0.000000 | 3680 | | 0.000083 | 0.003651 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-13 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.62500 | 5450 | 0.050000 | 3680 | | 0.002749 | 0.002433 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-14 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.75000 | 2075 | 0.047619 | 3680 | | 0.000366 | 0.004474 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-15 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.87500 | 22490 | 0.045455 | 3680 | | 0.008206 | 0.007693 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-16 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -3.00000 | 10900 | 0.043478 | 3680 | | 0.004702 | 0.005670 | ||
| + | 10000 | 1986-01-17 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -3.00000 | 8470 | 0.000000 | 3680 | | -0.001741 | 0.003297 | ||
| + | (10 rows) | ||
==Previous Papers== | ==Previous Papers== | ||
Revision as of 18:59, 12 October 2016
| Winner's Curse in Acquisitions (Academic Paper) | |
|---|---|
| Project Information | |
| Project Title | |
| Start Date | |
| Deadline | |
| Primary Billing | |
| Notes | |
| Has project status | |
| Copyright © 2016 edegan.com. All Rights Reserved. | |
Contents
Three Big Pulls
SDC Mergers & Acquisitions
Session Details
---------------
Request Hits Request Description
0 - DATABASES: Domestic Mergers, 1979-Present (MA, OMA)
1 - Date Announced: 1/1/1985 to 10/11/2016 (Custom) (Calendar)
2 300351 Target Nation : US
3 257921 Acquiror Nation : US
4 127852 Acquiror Public Status : P
5 98102 Target Public Status : V, P
6 63725 Deal Status : C
7 52739 Percent of Shares Owned after Transaction: 100 to 100
8 Custom Report: SDC_MA_Oct10v2 (Columnar) - Save As:
E:\McNair\Projects\Winner's Curse\Data\SDC_MA_Oct10v2.txt
Billing Ref # : 1960756
Capture File : riceuniv.1960756
Session Name : SDC_MA_Oct10v2.ssh
Variables Pulled: ----------------- Date Announced Date Effective Target Name Target Industry Sector Target Nation Acquiror Name Acquiror Industry Sector Acquiror Nation Pc of Shares Acq Pc Owned After Transaction Value of Transaction mil Enterprise Value mil Equity Value mil Acquiror CUSIP Acquiror Immediate Parent CUSIP Acquiror Ultimate Parent CUSIP Target Immediate Parent CUSIP Target Ultimate Parent CUSIP Target CUSIP Acquiror Primary Ticker Symbol Acquiror Ultimate Parent Primary Ticker Symbol Target Primary Ticker Symbol Target Ultimate Parent Primary Ticker Symbol Target Ultimate Parent Ticker Symbol Acquiror Primary NAIC Code Acquiror Ultimate Parent Primary NAIC Code Target Primary NAIC Code Target s Ultimate Parent Primary NAIC Code Number of Bidders Status Value Est Value Amended Flag Date Announced is Estimated Consideration Structure Number of Considerations Offered Number of Considerations Sought Consid Structure Description Pc of Cash Pc of Other Pc of Stock Pc of Unknown Acquiror Full Name Target Name Acquiror City Target City Acquiror Zip Code Target Zip Code Acquiror State Target State Deal Currency Code Target Bankrupt Challenged Deal Debt Restructuring RecapDefense Government Owned Involvement Flag Joint Venture Restructuring Acquiror is a Leveraged Buyout Firm LBO IPO FlagY N Target is a Leveraged Buyout Firm Merger of Equals Reverse Takeover Deal Began as a Rumor Acquiror is a White Knight White Knight Defense Back End Defense FlipOver Defense Voting Plan Defense Poison Pill Creeping Acquisition Repurchase Defense Pacman Defense Lockup FlagY N Target Lockup Greenmail Asset Lockup Scorched Earth Defense SelfTender Defense Stock Lockup Defense White Squire Acquiror Includes Employees Acquiror Includes an ESOP Significant Family Ownership of Target Acquiror Lockup Financial Acquiror 2 Step Spinoff Acquiror Includes Mgmt Open Market Purchases Proxy Fight Purpose Code Related Deals Foreign Provider of Funds Stock Swap Asset Swap Flag Sweep the Street SelfTender Tender Offer Unsolicited Acquiror TermFee Target TermFee Forced vote provisions FlagY N Walkaway Acquiror Ultimate Parent Street Address 1 Acquiror Ultimate Parent Street Address 2 Target Ultimate Parent Street Address 1 Target Ultimate Parent Street Address 2 Acquiror Primary Stock ExchangeName Target Primary Stock ExchangeName
COMPUSTAT
Use Compustat Industrial Annual (annual data)
Criteria: ----------------- 1970-1 to 2015-11 GVKEY, Entire Dbase tab delimited, date in ISO8661
Variables: ---------- GVKEY CONM TIC CUSIP EXCHG FYR CURNCD FYEAR AT CEQ INTAN EBITDA REVT SALE NAICSH SICH MKVALT PRCC_F C INDL FS STD
Note: TobinsQ is Market over book so MKVALT/AT (also pulled common stock and price)
CRSP
Use CRSP Annual, Daily Stock File
Criteria: ----------------- PERMNO, Entire Dbase 1980-01-01 to 2015-12-31 tab delimited, date in ISO8661
Variables: ---------- PERMNO CUSIP NCUSIP COMNAM TICKER PERMCO EXCHCD SICCD NAICS PRIMEXCH PRC VOL NUMTRD RET SHROUT VWRETD EWRETD
Governance Measures
Projects --> Winner's Curse --> Data
Open the GovernanceVARS.txt
These are
- staggered boards
- limits to shareholder bylaw amendments
- limits to shareholder charter amendments
- supermajority requirements for mergers
- poison pills
- golden parachutes
To do list
Processing the SDC data:
- Find SIC codes concordance to get NAICS for old data
- Acquirer publicly traded ( must be AMEX, NASDAQ, or NYSE)
- Magic with CUSIPs : CUSIP is a nine digit number (possibly ten, ) Seven issuer, two issue, one check
CRSP processing notes:
- Estimation window 250 days ending 30 days before the Acq. must be at least 50 continuous days before the 30 days window.
- Returns and prices may contain codes. Import as var_char and reprocess?
Other notes:
- See page 9 of the paper for data processing notes.
- Data dictionary for SDC MA: http://www.edegan.com/repository/DD-ThomsonSDCMA.txt
Governance Variables
A list of governance variables can be found in: E:\McNair\Projects\Winner's Curse\Data\GovernanceVARS
Paper Discussion
Variables & Where to Find Them:
| Variable | Location |
| Actual Return | CRSP |
| Abnormal Return | CRSP |
| Average Return | CRSP |
| Weighted Average Return | CRSP |
| Cumulative Ab. Return | CRSP |
| Boom | SDC |
| Competition | Compustat |
| Distance | SDC + google maps |
| IT Fixed Effect | SDC |
| Idiosyncratic Volatility | CRSP (Calculated) |
| Industry Fixed Effect | SDC |
| Momentum | CRSP (Calculated) |
| Private Financial Data | CRSP |
| Percent Cash | SDC |
| Previous Acquisitions | SDC |
| Sales | Compustat |
| Tobin's Q | Compustat |
| Turnover | CRSP |
| VC Fixed Event | SDC & VentureXpert |
| Governance | Compustat |
| Friendly vs. Hostile | SDC |
Importing the CRISP data into the `winner' database (Amir)
Data file is located in: E:\McNair\Projects\Winner's Curse\Data\CRSP-Oct10-c30cc89e52b70545-1.txt
Issue 1: The text file is 8 GB large and there's no way to open it in Textpad. I'll try to read the file in LogExpert which seems to do a neat job in in opening large files. Otherwise, I'll try to read the first few lines in the terminal. Update: I managed to open the file in LogExpert. However, extremely inefficient to scroll over the file.
I copied the file to Z:\WinnersCurse\CRSP-oct10
Entered the following command in the terminal to read the header: head -1 CRSP-oct10.txt
List of variables in the CRSP-oct10.txt
- PERMNO
- date
- EXCHCD
- SICCD
- NCUSIP
- TICKER
- COMNAM
- NAICS
- PRIMEXCH
- PERMCO
- CUSIP
- PRC
- VOL
- RET
- SHR
- OUT
- NUMTRD
- vwretdPE
- ewretd
CREATE TABLE CRSP (
PermNo int, date date, EXcode int, SIC int, NCUSIP varchar(10), Ticker varchar(10), Name varchar(100), NAICS int, PrimEx varchar(1), PERMCO int, CUSIP varchar(12), Price real, VOL int, RET real, ShOut int, trade int, EQRET real, VRET real);
The data file, crsp-oct10.txt, has a header in the first line. I couldn't find an argument for copy from function to account for this. So, I'll just delete the first line from the file and try again to copy the data into the crsp table.
tail -n +2 CRSP-oct10.txt > CRSP-oct10NH.stdout
I renamed the output to CRSP-NH, NH for no header. Let's take a look if the header is actually removed.
head -2 CRSP-NH.txt
output: 10000 1986/01/06 7952 68391610 -0.000138 0.001926 10000 1986/01/07 3 3990 68391610 OMFGA OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC Q 7952 68391610 -2.56250 1000 C 3680 0.013809 0.011061
Now, let's copy the data from CRSP-NH.txt into the CRSP table.
\COPY crsp FROM '/bulk/WinnersCurse/CRSP-NH.txt'; ERROR: invalid input syntax for integer: "" CONTEXT: COPY crsp, line 1, column excode: ""
To avoid problems such the one above, I'll just copy all the variables as varchar.
CREATE TABLE CRSPtmp (
PermNo varchar(10), date date, EXcode varchar(10), SIC varchar(10), NCUSIP varchar(10), Ticker varchar(10), Name varchar(100), NAICS varchar(10), PrimEx varchar(1), PERMCO varchar(10), CUSIP varchar(12), Price varchar(15), VOL varchar(10), RET varchar(10), ShOut varchar(10), trade varchar(10), EQRET varchar(10), VRET varchar(10));
\COPY CRSPtmp FROM '/bulk/WinnersCurse/CRSP-NH.txt'; COPY 64614281
SELECT * FROM CRSPtmp limit 10;
permno | date | excode | sic | ncusip | ticker | name | naics | primex | permco | cusip | price | vol | ret | shout | trade | eqret | vret
+------------+--------+------+----------+--------+---------------------------+-------+--------+--------+----------+----------+-------+-----------+-------+-------+-----------+-----------
10000 | 1986-01-06 | | | | | | | | 7952 | 68391610 | | | | | | -0.000138 | 0.001926 10000 | 1986-01-07 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.56250 | 1000 | C | 3680 | | 0.013809 | 0.011061 10000 | 1986-01-08 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.50000 | 12800 | -0.024390 | 3680 | | -0.020744 | -0.005117 10000 | 1986-01-09 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.50000 | 1400 | 0.000000 | 3680 | | -0.011219 | -0.011588 10000 | 1986-01-10 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.50000 | 8500 | 0.000000 | 3680 | | 0.000083 | 0.003651 10000 | 1986-01-13 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.62500 | 5450 | 0.050000 | 3680 | | 0.002749 | 0.002433 10000 | 1986-01-14 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.75000 | 2075 | 0.047619 | 3680 | | 0.000366 | 0.004474 10000 | 1986-01-15 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -2.87500 | 22490 | 0.045455 | 3680 | | 0.008206 | 0.007693 10000 | 1986-01-16 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -3.00000 | 10900 | 0.043478 | 3680 | | 0.004702 | 0.005670 10000 | 1986-01-17 | 3 | 3990 | 68391610 | OMFGA | OPTIMUM MANUFACTURING INC | | Q | 7952 | 68391610 | -3.00000 | 8470 | 0.000000 | 3680 | | -0.001741 | 0.003297
(10 rows)
Previous Papers
From the old wiki
