Difference between revisions of "Winner's Curse"

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This page provides notes for the Winner's Curse Project with Jim Brander. Access is restricted to this page.
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#REDIRECT [[Governance Measures]]
 
 
See also:
 
*[[The Winner's Curse Literature Review]]
 
 
 
==Data==
 
 
 
The two primary datasets are:
 
*The CapGeek data
 
*The NHL.com data
 
 
 
===CapGeek Data===
 
 
 
All contract data was be taken from http://www.CapGeek.com by a custom web-crawler. This includes all '''known''' (to capgeek) buyouts: http://www.capgeek.com/buyouts.php. Data was retrieved using player ID's, which are unique, start at 11, and end at 2352 (assigned to Biggs, Taylor, who signed a new entry level contract on 8/9 at 19:46. See http://www.capgeek.com/latest_contracts.php and look for the highest entry for an new signing.) Not all ID's exist.
 
 
 
Data retrieved includes:
 
*The player name (in the page level 1 header)
 
*The player's position and team name (in the page level 2 header)
 
*The full contract history. Notes on contracts (i.e. known clauses) are included in the dbase but not the STATA export.
 
 
 
CapGeek provides contract data on 2241 players, of which 1459 appear in the NHL statistics data, who held contracts from 2001 to the present day. 194 capgeek players have teams marked as 'Inactive', and these invariably do not appear in the NHL data. The missing capgeek players presumably play in the minors.
 
 
 
===NHL Data===
 
 
 
The NHL data was retrieved from NHL.com using a custom webcrawler. The data covers the years 1997-present, except for the 2004-2005 season (which was a lockout). Data was retrieved seperately for skaters and goalies. We have data on all 2870 NHL players that have stats recorded on NHL.com in the final dataset.
 
 
 
====Joining to CapGeek====
 
 
 
NHL.com does not provide unique player identifiers. These were created using player names and dates of birth. Players were matched to CapGeek using their names, and when names were non-unique matches were established manually by checking birth dates, teams and positions in both sources. Birth-date - player-name dyads were found to be unique. For a small percentage of players (approximately 45/1459) their names were recorded differently in each source. Fuzzy-matching software provided potential candidate matches and all matches were checked by hand.
 
 
 
Of the 2870 NHL players with statistics, we have CapGeek contract records for 1459 (51%). Part of the discrepancy is due to retirement. 442 players played their last game before 2001 and do not have CapGeek records. This leaves 969 (34%) of the NHL players that do not have contracts in CapGeek for some other reason - most likely that CapGeek's coverage is incomplete.
 
 
 
==Variables==
 
 
 
===General===
 
 
 
Each record has:
 
*nhlid - a unique player index based on name and date of birth
 
*skater - 1 for skaters, 0 for goalies
 
*syear - the season starting year identifier (YYYY), for the 2000-2001 season this is 2000
 
*playerage - in years, calculated as the age as of 1st October for the syear
 
*capgeek - 1 if the player-season is in CapGeek, 0 otherwise
 
 
 
From the NHL data, each record has:
 
*season - the NHL season YYYYXXXX (i.e., 20002001)
 
*gametype - 2 for regular season data, 3 for playoffs
 
*jerseyno
 
*player - the player name
 
*teamstring - the team(s) the NHL records the player as coming from (for the season)
 
*teamcount - the number of teams the player played for (in the season)
 
*team1 - the 1st team the NHL records the player as coming from
 
*team2 - the 2nd team if applicable
 
*team3 - the 3rd team if applicable
 
*team4 - the 4th team if applicable
 
*pos - the player's listed position (C, L, R, D, G)
 
*dob - the player's Date of Birth
 
*biobirth_city
 
*biosorp - state or province
 
*bioctry - country
 
*bioht - height in inches
 
*biowt - weight in lbs
 
*biohanded - L or R handed
 
*biorhanded - 1 if R, 0 if L
 
*biork - Rookie (1 or 0)
 
*biogp - games played (int)
 
*biog - goals (int)
 
*bioa - assists (int)
 
*biopim - penalty minutes (int)
 
*biotoiperg - time on ice per game (secs), calculated for goalies
 
 
 
===Contract Data===
 
 
 
When a player has a record in capgeek, there is contract data. This is joined to the NHL data using unique player idenfiers (based on name and dob) and the season year. For these records the 'capgeek' variable is set to 1.
 
 
 
*id - Capgeek ID number
 
*length - contract length (years)
 
*value - contract total value
 
*type - contract type code: 1=ENTRY LEVEL, 2=STANDARD, 3=35-PLUS
 
*typetext - the contract type
 
*expstatus - The contract's expiry status code: 0=RFA, 1=UFA
 
*expstatustext - the contract's expiry status
 
*ahlsalary
 
*nhlsalary
 
*pbonuses
 
*sbonus
 
*caphit
 
*cyear - contract year signed (i.e., first contract year)
 
*cage - contract age for a given year (i.e. 1 for first year, 2 for second year, etc).
 
*cteam - the team code of the team that holds the player's contract
 
*playedcteam - 1 if the player played for the contract holder in the season, 0 otherwise
 
*playedcteaonly - 1 if the player ONLY played for the contract holder in the season, 0 otherwise
 
*buyout - 1 if the player had a buyout in that season year, 0 otherwise
 
*byear - the buyout year
 
*blength - the number of contract years bought out
 
*bamount - the amount of the buyout
 
 
 
Note that if a player played for the Atlanta Thrashers and the Winnipeg Jets, this counts as the same team.
 
 
 
===Player's Data===
 
 
 
Variables are named 'view-name-prefix' followed by 'transformed NHL.com code'. The view name prefixes are three letter codes, listed in brackets next to the view names themselves. The untransformed NHL.com codes used are provided for each view name in the display box. The transformation rules are replacements as follows: % -> pc, / -> or OR / -> per (depending on context), + -> plus, - -> minus, " " -> "", 1 -> one, and so forth.
 
 
 
====Skaters====
 
 
 
Bios (bio)
 
# - Sweater Number
 
Player - Player Name
 
Team - Team
 
Pos - Position
 
DOB - Date of Birth
 
Birth City - Birth City
 
S/P - State/Province
 
Ctry - Country
 
Ht - Height in Inches
 
Wt - Weight in Pounds
 
S - Shoots
 
Rk - Rookie
 
GP - Games Played
 
G - Goals
 
A - Assists
 
Pts - Points
 
+/- - Plus/Minus
 
PIM - Penalty Minutes
 
TOI/G - Time On Ice Per Game
 
 
 
Summary (sum)
 
PP - Power Play Goals
 
SH - Short Handed Goals
 
GW - Game Winning Goals
 
GT - Game Tying Goals
 
OT - Overtime Goals
 
S - Shots
 
S% - Shooting Percentage
 
Sft/G - Average Shifts Per Game
 
FO% - Faceoff Win Percentage
 
 
 
Assists (ast)
 
ESA - Even Strength Assists
 
SHA - Short Handed Assists
 
PPA - Power Play Assists
 
HmA - Home Assists
 
RdA - Road Assists
 
DvA - Own Division Assists
 
ODvA - Other Division Assists
 
A/G - Average Assists Per Game
 
 
 
Division Scoring (dsc)
 
Dv GP - Division Games Played
 
Dv G - Division Goals
 
Dv A - Division Assists
 
Dv P - Division Points
 
Dv +/- - Division Plus/Minus
 
ODGP - Other Division Games Played
 
OD G - Other Division Goals
 
OD A - Other Division Assists
 
OD P - Other Division Points
 
OD+/- - Other Division Plus/Minus
 
 
 
Faceoff Percentages (fpc)
 
ESFOW - Even Strength Faceoffs Won
 
ESFOL - Even Strength Faceoffs Lost
 
PPFOW - Power Play Faceoffs Won
 
PPFOL - Power Play Faceoffs Lost
 
SHFOW - Shorthanded Faceoffs Won
 
SHFOL - Shorthanded Faceoffs Lost
 
HFOW - Home Faceoffs Won
 
HFOL - Home Faceoffs Lost
 
HFO% - Home Faceoff Win Percentage
 
RFOW - Road Faceoffs Won
 
RFOL - Road Faceoffs Lost
 
RFO% - Road Faceoff Win Percentage
 
FOW - Total Faceoffs Won
 
FOL - Total Faceoffs Lost
 
Tot - Total Faceoffs Taken
 
FO% - Faceoff Win Percentage
 
 
 
Goals (gls)
 
ESG - Even Strength Goals
 
PPG - Power Play Goals
 
SHG - Short Handed Goals
 
1G - First Goals
 
OTG - Overtime Goals
 
GWG - Game Winning Goals
 
GTG - Game Tying Goals
 
HmG - Home Goals
 
RdG - Road Goals
 
DvG - Own Division Goals
 
ODvG - Other Division Goals
 
ENG - Empty Net Goals
 
PSG - Penalty Shot Goals
 
PST - Penalty Shots Taken
 
G/G - Average Goals Per Game
 
 
 
Home Scoring (hsc)
 
GP - Home Games Played
 
G - Home Goals
 
A - Home Assists
 
P - Home Points
 
+/- - Home Plus/Minus
 
PIM - Home Penalty Minutes
 
Pen - Home Penalties
 
EV TOI/g - Home Avg Even TOI/game
 
PP TOI/g - Home Avg PP TOI/game
 
SH TOI/g - Home Avg SH TOI/game
 
TOI/g - Home Avg TOI/game
 
FO - Home Faceoffs Taken
 
FOW - Home Faceoffs Won
 
FOL - Home Faceoffs Lost
 
FO% - Home Faceoff Win %
 
 
 
Penalties (pen)
 
Player - Player Name
 
Team - Team
 
Pos - Position
 
GP - Games Played
 
PIM - Penalty Minutes
 
Minor - Minor Penalties
 
Major - Major Penalties
 
Misc - Misconduct Penalties
 
G Misc - Game Misconduct Penalties
 
Match - Match Penalties
 
 
 
Plus Or Minus (pom)
 
Other Div +/- - Other Division Plus/Minus
 
Team GF - Team Goals For
 
Team PPGF - Team Powerplay Goals For
 
Team GA - Team Goals Against
 
Team PPGA - Team Powerplay Goals Against
 
 
 
Points (pnt)
 
ESP - Even Strength Points
 
SHP - Short Handed Points
 
ODvP - Other Division Points
 
P/G - Average Points Per Game
 
 
 
Road Scoring (rsc)
 
GP - Road Games Played
 
G - Road Goals
 
A - Road Assists
 
P - Road Points
 
+/- - Road Plus/Minus
 
PIM - Road Penalty Minutes
 
Pen - Road Penalties
 
EV TOI/g - Road Avg Even TOI/game
 
PP TOI/g - Road Avg PP TOI/game
 
SH TOI/g - Road Avg SH TOI/game
 
TOI/g - Road Avg TOI/game
 
FO - Road Faceoffs Taken
 
FOW - Road Faceoffs Won
 
FOL - Road Faceoffs Lost
 
FO% - Road Faceoff Win %
 
 
 
Real Time Stats (rts)
 
Hits - Hits
 
BkS - Blocked Shots
 
MsS - Missed Shots
 
GvA - Giveaways
 
TkA - Takeaways
 
%Tm - % of Team Faceoffs Taken
 
Shots - Shots
 
% - Shooting Percentage
 
 
 
Special Teams (spc)
 
G - Power Play Goals
 
A - Power Play Assists
 
P - Power Play Points
 
 
 
Shooting (sho)
 
S/G - Average Shots Per Game
 
PS Goals - Penalty Shot Goals
 
PS Taken - Penalty Shots Taken
 
 
 
Shootouts (sou)
 
Player - Player Name
 
Team - Team
 
Pos - Position
 
Home: S - Home Shots
 
G - Home Goals
 
S% - Home Shooting Percentage
 
GDG - Home Game-Deciding Goals
 
Road: S - Road Shots
 
G - Road Goals
 
S% - Road Shooting Percentage
 
GDG - Road Game-Deciding Goals
 
GDG - Total Game-Deciding Goals
 
 
 
====Goalies====
 
 
 
Bios (gbio or bio, when common)
 
# - Sweater Number
 
Player - Player Name
 
Team - Team
 
DOB - Date of Birth
 
Birth City - Birth City
 
S/P - State/Province
 
Ctry - Country
 
Ht - Height in Inches
 
Wt - Weight in Pounds
 
C - Catches
 
Rk - Rookie
 
GP - Games Played
 
W - Wins
 
L - Losses
 
T - Ties
 
OT - OT and/or S/O Losses
 
GAA - Goals Against Average
 
Sv% - Save Percentage
 
SO - Shutouts
 
 
Summary (gsum or bio/sum, when common)
 
GS - Games Started
 
SA - Shots Against
 
GA - Goals Against
 
GAA - Goals Against Average
 
Sv - Saves
 
G - Goals
 
A - Assists
 
PIM - Penalty Minutes
 
TOI - Time On Ice
 
 
 
Special Teams (sav)
 
Even: SA - Even Strength Shots Against
 
GA - Even Strength Goals Against
 
Sv - Even Strength Saves
 
Sv% - Even Strength Save Percentage
 
Power Play: SA - Power Play Shots Against
 
GA - Power Play Goals Against
 
Sv - Power Play Saves
 
Sv% - Power Play Save Percentage
 
Shorthanded: SA - Short Handed Shots Against
 
GA - Short Handed Goals Against
 
Sv - Short Handed Saves
 
Sv% - Short Handed Save Percentage
 
 
 
Shootouts (gsou)
 
Home: W - Home Wins
 
L - Losses
 
SA - Shots Against
 
GA - Goals Against
 
Sv % - Save Percentage
 
Road: W - Wins
 
L - Losses
 
SA - Shots Against
 
GA - Goals Allowed
 
Sv % - Save Percentage
 
 
 
==Other Data==
 
 
 
===Arbitration data===
 
 
 
All I have so far is:
 
*http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/story/10879613 which covers 2008
 
*http://www.nhlpa.com/news/salary-arbitration which doesn't give details, but appears the official source.
 
*http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2011/07/06/2011-nhl-salary-arbitration-list/
 
*http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=46931
 
*http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2010/07/06/31-players-file-for-nhlsalary-arbitration/
 
*http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=11919
 
 
 
And some articles/blog posts:
 
*http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/story/2012/07/06/sp-nhl-hockey-salary-arbitration.html
 
*http://bleacherreport.com/articles/416350-hes-filing-for-arbitration-right
 
*http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/18227/16-players-file-for-salary-arbitration
 
*http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEsQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fscholarship.law.marquette.edu%2Fcgi%2Fviewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%3D1090%26context%3Dsportslaw&ei=oF0kUOjnDaStygGdloGICQ&usg=AFQjCNFVdbuIrKocqXl3w5Gm7gT32r5LcA
 

Latest revision as of 12:10, 27 July 2016