Difference between revisions of "Presidential Candidate Platforms"

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==Events==
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=Topic Pages=
 +
*[[Tax Reform]]
 +
*[[Jobs and Business Policy]]
 +
*[[Health Policy]]
 +
*[[Drug Policy]]
 +
*[[Middle East]]
 +
*[[Trade]]
 +
*[[Immigration]]
 +
*[[Environmental]]
 +
*[[Entrepreneurship and Innovation]]
 +
*[[Monetary Policy]]
 +
*[[Religion]]
 +
*[[Quotes]]
 +
*[[Carried Interest]]
 +
 
 +
=Candidates=
 +
{|  class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9"
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|'''Republican''' || '''Current Poll Number''' || '''IEM Price''' || '''PredictIt Price'''
 +
|-
 +
| [[Donald Trump]]||36.2||40||49
 +
|-
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| [[Ted Cruz]]||19.4||16||16
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|-
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| [[Marco Rubio]]||10.8||25.7||27
 +
|-
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| [[Ben Carson]]||8.2||0.1||1
 +
|-
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| [[Jeb Bush]]||4.8||-||8
 +
|-
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| [[John Kasich]]||2.6||-||4
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|}
 +
 
  
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===Event 1: International Affairs===
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{|  class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9"
 +
|'''Democratic''' || '''Current Poll Number''' || '''IEM Price''' || '''PredictIt Price'''
 +
|-
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| [[Hillary Clinton]]||52.5||68.2||70
 +
|-
 +
| [[Bernie Sanders]]||37.2||27||28
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|}
  
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10th Feb 2016
 
  
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Moderator: Allen Matusow
 
  
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Panelists:
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{|  class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9"
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#Middle East - Joe Barnes
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|'''Drop Outs''' ||
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#Trade - Russell Green
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|-
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#Immigration - Tony Payan
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| [[Rick Santorum]]
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#Environmental - Ronald Sass
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|-
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| [[Rand Paul]]
 +
|-
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| [[Mike Huckabee]]
 +
|-
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| [[Carly Fiorina]]
 +
|-
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| [[Chris Christie]]
 +
|-
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| [[Martin O'Malley]]
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|}
  
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===Event 2: Domestic Policy===
 
  
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16th Feb 2016
 
  
−
Moderator: Mark Jones
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Poll numbers taken from real clear politics [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html] [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html]
  
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Panelists:
+
Prediction market prices are reported in cents.
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#Tax Reform - John Diamond
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*PredictIt Republican [http://www.predictit.org/Market/1233/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination] and Democratic [http://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination] nomination data
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#Jobs and Business Policy - Ed Egan
+
*Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Republican [https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/364.html] and Democratic [https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/365.html] market data
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#Health Policy - Vivian Ho
 
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#Drug Policy - Bill Martin
 
  
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=Topic Pages=
+
=Debates=
−
*[[Tax Reform]]
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==Democratic Party Primary Debates==
 +
{| {{table}}
 +
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Date'''
 +
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Transcript'''
 +
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Link to Highlights'''
  
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=Republicans=
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|-
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| 13-Oct-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110903 Las Vegas, NV]||[[Oct. 13, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|10-13-15]]
 +
|-
 +
| 14-Nov-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110910 Des Moines, IA]||[[Nov. 14, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|11-14-15]]
 +
|-
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| 19-Dec-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111178 Manchester, NH]||[[Dec. 19, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|12-19-15]]
 +
|-
 +
| 17-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111409 Charleston, SC]||[[Jan. 17, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|01-17-16]]
 +
|-
 +
| 11-Feb-16||TBD, WI
 +
|-
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| 9-Mar-16||Miami, FL
 +
|}
  
−
*[[Jeb Bush]]
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==Republican Party Primary Debates==
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*[[Ben Carson]]
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{| {{table}}
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*[[Chris Christie]]
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| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Date'''
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*[[Ted Cruz]]
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| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Transcript'''
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*[[Carly Fiorina]]
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| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Link to Highlights'''
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*[[Mike Huckabee]]
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|-
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*[[John Kasich]]
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| 6-Aug-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110489 Cleveland, OH]||[[Aug. 6, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|08-06-15]]
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*[[Jim Gilmore]]
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|-
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*[[Rand Paul]]
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| 16-Sep-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110756 Semi Valley, CA]||[[Sep. 16, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|09-16-15]]
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*[[Marco Rubio]]
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|-
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*[[Rick Santorum]]
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| 28-Oct-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110906 Boulder, CO]||[[Oct. 28, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|10-28-15]]
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*[[Donald Trump]]
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|-
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| 10-Nov-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110908 Milwaukee, WI]||[[Nov. 10, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|11-10-15]]
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|-
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| 15-Dec-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111177 Las Vegas, NV]||[[Dec. 15, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|12-15-15]]
 +
|-
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| 14-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111395 North Charleston, SC]||[[Jan. 14, 2016 Republican Debate Highlights|01-14-16]]
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|-
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| 28-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111412 Des Moines, Iowa]||[[Jan. 28, 2016 Republican Debate Highlights|01-28-16]]
 +
|-
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| 6-Feb-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111472 Manchester, NH]
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|-
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| 13-Feb-16||Greenville, SC
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|-
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| 26-Feb-16||Houston, TX
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|-
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| 10-Mar-16||TBD, FL
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|}
  
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=Democrats=
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=Caucus Results=
 +
[[Iowa Caucus]]
  
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*[[Hillary Clinton]]
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Super Tuesday is on March 1st. A nice chart of when each state votes and how is available from the [http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/02/daily-chart-0 The Economist].
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*[[Bernie Sanders]]
 
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*[[Martin O'Malley]]
 
  
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=Debates=
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=Polls=
−
==Republican Party Primary Debates==
 
−
March 10th, 2016: Republican Candidates Debate in TBD, Florida
 
  
−
March TBD, 2016: Republican Candidates Debate in TBD
+
Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP. His polls have risen steadily since late May 2015. Trump has held the Republican lead throughout the primary, excluding a brief period in November 2015 when Ben Carson rose within 1% of Trump. Since that spike, Carson's numbers have dipped, and the most recent poll numbers place Carson in fourth. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, polling second and third respectively, have both demonstrated gradual increases in poll numbers since September 2015. Starting the election process as a clear GOP front runner, Jeb Bush has experienced a gradual decline to under 5%. The remaining GOP candidates,including Christie, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Santorum, are each polling below 4%. (USA)
  
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February 26th, 2016: Republican Candidates Debate in Houston, Texas
+
Hillary Clinton polls as the Democratic front runner. She has maintained a lead in the polls since the beginning of her campaign. Her poll numbers dropped between July-September 2015, but have been on the rise since then. Bernie Sanders comes in second, with his numbers steadily on the rise since spring and summer of 2015. Martin O'Malley's numbers have remained relatively flat and have not risen above 5%. (USA)
  
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February 13th, 2016: Republican Candidates Debate in Greenville, South Carolina
+
For the most up to date Presidential Campaign poll data, see USA Today's [http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/ Interactive Poll Tracker].
  
−
February 6th, 2016: Republican Candidates Debate in Manchester, New Hampshire
+
For data on U.S. political trends, see Pew Research Center's [http://www.pewresearch.org/data/ key indicators page].
  
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January 28, 2016: Republican Candidates Debate in Des Monies, Iowa
+
=Baker Institute Events=
  
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January 14, 2016: [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111395 North Charleston, SC]
+
[[Ed's Presentation]]
  
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December 15th, 2015: [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111177 Las Vegas, NV]
+
===Event 1: International Affairs===
  
−
November 10th, 2015: [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110908 Milwaukee, WI]
+
10th Feb 2016
  
−
October 28th, 2015: [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110906 Boulder, CO]
+
Moderator: Allen Matusow
  
−
September 16th, 2015: [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110756 Semi Valley, CA]
+
Panelists:
 +
#Middle East - Joe Barnes
 +
#Trade - Russell Green
 +
#Immigration - Tony Payan
 +
#Environmental - Ronald Sass
  
−
August 6th, 2015: [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110489 Cleveland, OH]
+
===Event 2: Domestic Policy===
  
−
==Democratic Party Primary Debates==
+
16th Feb 2016
−
March 9th, 2016 Democratic Candidates Debate in Miami, Florida
 
  
−
February 11th, 2016 Democratic Candidates Debate in TBD, Wisconsin
+
Moderator: Mark Jones
  
−
January 17th, 2016 [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111409 Charleston, SC]
+
Panelists:
 +
#Tax Reform - John Diamond
 +
#Jobs and Business Policy - Ed Egan
 +
#Health Policy - Vivian Ho
 +
#Drug Policy - Bill Martin
  
−
December 19th, 2015 [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111178 Manchester, NH]
+
===Event Format===
  
−
November 14th, 2015 [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110910 Des Moines, IO]
+
*Introduction (EPD or moderators)
 +
* 10 minutes at the podium for each participant
 +
** slides preferred, so we can put them online afterwards. This will help direct media to our interests
 +
**strict time keeping, because most audience members want to get to the Q&A
 +
* Moderated Q&A
 +
**let's aim to have the audience ask most of the questions, but the moderators should be prepared in case of lulls
 +
*Finish about 8pm and adjourn to the reception
  
−
October 13th, 2015 [http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110903 Las Vegas, NV]
+
A template for the slides was sent out by email from Ed.
  
 
=Helpful Links=
 
=Helpful Links=
Line 96: Line 179:
 
*Bing Political Index
 
*Bing Political Index
 
https://www.bing.com/search?q=bing+political+index&qs=SS&pq=bing+poli&sc=8-9&sp=1&cvid=C807FAE42F3B41D1A75124B713D48522&FORM=QBRE&ghc=1
 
https://www.bing.com/search?q=bing+political+index&qs=SS&pq=bing+poli&sc=8-9&sp=1&cvid=C807FAE42F3B41D1A75124B713D48522&FORM=QBRE&ghc=1
 +
 +
(USA) = http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/

Latest revision as of 17:28, 12 February 2016

Topic Pages

Candidates

Republican Current Poll Number IEM Price PredictIt Price
Donald Trump 36.2 40 49
Ted Cruz 19.4 16 16
Marco Rubio 10.8 25.7 27
Ben Carson 8.2 0.1 1
Jeb Bush 4.8 - 8
John Kasich 2.6 - 4


Democratic Current Poll Number IEM Price PredictIt Price
Hillary Clinton 52.5 68.2 70
Bernie Sanders 37.2 27 28


Drop Outs
Rick Santorum
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Carly Fiorina
Chris Christie
Martin O'Malley


Poll numbers taken from real clear politics [1] [2]

Prediction market prices are reported in cents.

  • PredictIt Republican [3] and Democratic [4] nomination data
  • Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Republican [5] and Democratic [6] market data

Debates

Democratic Party Primary Debates

Date Transcript Link to Highlights
13-Oct-15 Las Vegas, NV 10-13-15
14-Nov-15 Des Moines, IA 11-14-15
19-Dec-15 Manchester, NH 12-19-15
17-Jan-16 Charleston, SC 01-17-16
11-Feb-16 TBD, WI
9-Mar-16 Miami, FL

Republican Party Primary Debates

Date Transcript Link to Highlights
6-Aug-15 Cleveland, OH 08-06-15
16-Sep-15 Semi Valley, CA 09-16-15
28-Oct-15 Boulder, CO 10-28-15
10-Nov-15 Milwaukee, WI 11-10-15
15-Dec-15 Las Vegas, NV 12-15-15
14-Jan-16 North Charleston, SC 01-14-16
28-Jan-16 Des Moines, Iowa 01-28-16
6-Feb-16 Manchester, NH
13-Feb-16 Greenville, SC
26-Feb-16 Houston, TX
10-Mar-16 TBD, FL

Caucus Results

Iowa Caucus

Super Tuesday is on March 1st. A nice chart of when each state votes and how is available from the The Economist.

Polls

Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP. His polls have risen steadily since late May 2015. Trump has held the Republican lead throughout the primary, excluding a brief period in November 2015 when Ben Carson rose within 1% of Trump. Since that spike, Carson's numbers have dipped, and the most recent poll numbers place Carson in fourth. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, polling second and third respectively, have both demonstrated gradual increases in poll numbers since September 2015. Starting the election process as a clear GOP front runner, Jeb Bush has experienced a gradual decline to under 5%. The remaining GOP candidates,including Christie, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Santorum, are each polling below 4%. (USA)

Hillary Clinton polls as the Democratic front runner. She has maintained a lead in the polls since the beginning of her campaign. Her poll numbers dropped between July-September 2015, but have been on the rise since then. Bernie Sanders comes in second, with his numbers steadily on the rise since spring and summer of 2015. Martin O'Malley's numbers have remained relatively flat and have not risen above 5%. (USA)

For the most up to date Presidential Campaign poll data, see USA Today's Interactive Poll Tracker.

For data on U.S. political trends, see Pew Research Center's key indicators page.

Baker Institute Events

Ed's Presentation

Event 1: International Affairs

10th Feb 2016

Moderator: Allen Matusow

Panelists:

  1. Middle East - Joe Barnes
  2. Trade - Russell Green
  3. Immigration - Tony Payan
  4. Environmental - Ronald Sass

Event 2: Domestic Policy

16th Feb 2016

Moderator: Mark Jones

Panelists:

  1. Tax Reform - John Diamond
  2. Jobs and Business Policy - Ed Egan
  3. Health Policy - Vivian Ho
  4. Drug Policy - Bill Martin

Event Format

  • Introduction (EPD or moderators)
  • 10 minutes at the podium for each participant
    • slides preferred, so we can put them online afterwards. This will help direct media to our interests
    • strict time keeping, because most audience members want to get to the Q&A
  • Moderated Q&A
    • let's aim to have the audience ask most of the questions, but the moderators should be prepared in case of lulls
  • Finish about 8pm and adjourn to the reception

A template for the slides was sent out by email from Ed.

Helpful Links

Earlier versions and info from presidential candidate platforms wiki page

  • OnTheIssues (good for quotes)

http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm

  • Bing Political Index

https://www.bing.com/search?q=bing+political+index&qs=SS&pq=bing+poli&sc=8-9&sp=1&cvid=C807FAE42F3B41D1A75124B713D48522&FORM=QBRE&ghc=1

(USA) = http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/

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