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| − | =Republicans= | + | =Topic Pages= |
| | + | *[[Tax Reform]] |
| | + | *[[Jobs and Business Policy]] |
| | + | *[[Health Policy]] |
| | + | *[[Drug Policy]] |
| | + | *[[Middle East]] |
| | + | *[[Trade]] |
| | + | *[[Immigration]] |
| | + | *[[Environmental]] |
| | + | *[[Entrepreneurship and Innovation]] |
| | + | *[[Monetary Policy]] |
| | + | *[[Religion]] |
| | + | *[[Quotes]] |
| | + | *[[Carried Interest]] |
| | | | |
| − | ==Jeb Bush== | + | =Candidates= |
| − | *[https://jeb2016.com/policy-tax-plan/?lang=en]“They are responsible for the slowest economic recovery ever, the biggest debt increases ever, a massive tax increase on the middle class, the relentless buildup of the regulatory state, and the swift, mindless drawdown of a military that was generations in the making.”- Jeb Bush on the Obama Administration [http://time.com/3921956/jeb-bush-campaign-launch-transcript/]
| + | {| class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9" |
| − | *Claims that Obama’s administration increased taxes, so we need an overhaul of tax code
| + | |'''Republican''' || '''Current Poll Number''' || '''IEM Price''' || '''PredictIt Price''' |
| − | **Fact check: Affordable Care Act increases taxes, but the high class is getting a majority of the impact of these tax increases. Subsidies also cushion the impact of the taxes.
| + | |- |
| − | ***Tax increases passed by Supreme Court would lead to an estimated cost to taxpayers over 804.6 billion dollars over the next decade [http://waysandmeans.house.gov/supreme-courts-health-law-decision-leaves-in-place-21-tax-hikes-costing-taxpayers-more-than-675-billion/][http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/jun/23/jeb-bush/jeb-bush-obama-caused-massive-tax-increase-middle-/#][http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Jeb_Bush_Corporations.htm]
| + | | [[Donald Trump]]||36.2||40||49 |
| − | *Business and corporations
| + | |- |
| − | **Tax Proposal: Lower taxes on small business and big businesses, simplified tax code that is easier on middle class and families[http://www.newsweek.com/your-money-your-vote-newsweeks-2016-presidential-debate-live-blog-388228][https://jeb2016.com/policy-tax-plan/?lang=en]
| + | | [[Ted Cruz]]||19.4||16||16 |
| − | **reduce personal income tax brackets down to three brackets: 28%, 25%, 10% like the Reagan administration’s second tax reform
| + | |- |
| − | **fact check: Reagan’s 2nd tax reform wasn’t like this; it was broken into 4 groups (10%, 28%, 33%, 28%), making a tax “bubble”. Taxpayers after a certain income level paid a flat 28% tax rate [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Reform_Act_of_1986#cite_note-4][http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/09/438873030/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-jeb-bushs-tax-plan]
| + | | [[Marco Rubio]]||10.8||25.7||27 |
| − | **cut down corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% and change it to territorial tax system (tax only on earnings made in US)[https://jeb2016.com/backgrounder-jeb-bushs-tax-reform-plan/?lang=en]
| + | |- |
| − | **2% cap of filer’s gross income on total tax deductions
| + | | [[Ben Carson]]||8.2||0.1||1 |
| − | **double size of standard deduction
| + | |- |
| − | **double income tax credit for childless workers
| + | | [[Jeb Bush]]||4.8||-||8 |
| − | **eliminate carried interest loophole
| + | |- |
| − | **estimate increasing number of Americans that don’t pay tax by 15 million, bringing the number of filers with zero taxes from 40% up to 50%
| + | | [[John Kasich]]||2.6||-||4 |
| − | **claims this will help lower and middle class, but this will benefit high earners instead[http://thecge.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Fundamental-Tax-Reform-An-Essential-Pillar-of-Economic-Growth.pdf]
| + | |} |
| − | **plan estimated to cost up to $3.4 trillion over the next decade without growth
| |
| − | **businesses deduct new capital investments
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==Ben Carson==
| |
| − | *[https://www.bencarson.com/issues/tax-reform]claims that USA has the highest corporate tax rates in the world at 35%, but this isn’t true. Japan has the world’s highest tax rates at 40% on income, 37% on domestics, and 38% for multinational corporations. Further, the average US company pays around 23% tax after deductions and MNCs pay 28% on average. This puts the US as the second highest corporate tax in the world.[http://www.forbes.com/pictures/gg45ehmhi/hey-mister-tax-man/]
| |
| − | *Claims current tax system discourages entrepreneurship and investment and inhibits growth of the economy
| |
| − | *Tax proposal:
| |
| − | **flat 14.9% tax (no deductions) that applies to all incomes over 150% federal poverty level
| |
| − | **tax only once (no double taxation on dividends, capital gains, interest income) at the personal level
| |
| − | **eliminate deductions from home mortgage interest, charity, state and local taxes
| |
| − | **eliminate alternative minimum tax
| |
| − | **eliminate death tax
| |
| − | **Claims: raise growth rate by 1.6% up to 4% annually, increase GDP by 16% in 10 years, create 5 million new jobs, increase wages by 11%
| |
| − | *Fact checks
| |
| − | **death tax: only 0.2% of Americans are paying the estate tax currently, mainly affects a few small businesses and farmers[http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-13/why-republicans-want-a-bigger-u-s-estate-tax-repeal-than-ever]
| |
| − | **There already is currently a $5.43 million exemption, so repealing the estate tax would mostly help the rich
| |
| − | **Republican proposal to repeal estate tax would be easier on farmers that have much of their assets tied to their land. Without the tax, there is more incentive to transfer property at death rather than during life due to the reduced tax costs
| |
| − | **flat tax rate plan: likely would lead to at least $1 trillion hole[http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/04/ben-carson/does-ben-carsons-tithe-based-tax-plan-lead-1-trill/]
| |
| − | **AMT: eliminating it would largely benefit the wealthy, who end up having to pay the higher tax rate when their income is above a certain threshold[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_minimum_tax]
| |
| − | **eliminating deductions: it’s true that mortgage deductions doesn’t tend to increase housing and it mainly helps the wealthy, who use it as a housing subsidy. Most others don’t take advantage of the mortgage deduction and instead take standard deductions. Plus, home prices tend to be higher than they would be without the deductions, which offsets the benefits from the deduction and discourages home ownership.[http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/06/the-sacrosanct-mortgage-interest-deduction/?_r=0][http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/pat-garofalo/2015/11/11/what-ben-carson-got-right-about-taxes-in-the-4th-republican-debate]
| |
| − | **eliminating double taxation on dividends, etc. would encourage more people to retain most of their income in stocks and pay zero taxes on dividend earnings from stock
| |
| − | **double taxation on capital gains: very controversial topic, some say that lowering it will encourage investment in companies that are more risky but also putting forward progressive technologies; others say that the reduced tax would largely benefit the wealthy[http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-should-capital-gains-be-taxed-1425271052]
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==Chris Christie== | + | {| class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9" |
| − | *[https://d70h9a36p82zs.cloudfront.net/Ccpres2016/base/assets/1-0-1/production/Chris-Christie-TheEconomy.pdf]Tax reform:
| + | |'''Democratic''' || '''Current Poll Number''' || '''IEM Price''' || '''PredictIt Price''' |
| − | **reduce corporate tax rate to 25%
| + | |- |
| − | **cap on total deductions individuals and married couples can make
| + | | [[Hillary Clinton]]||52.5||68.2||70 |
| − | **reduce income tax brackets to three brackets, with the highest bracket taxed at 28%, single digit for lowest bracket
| + | |- |
| − | **eliminate payroll tax on individuals over 62 and under 25
| + | | [[Bernie Sanders]]||37.2||27||28 |
| − | *Economy
| + | |} |
| − | **revert the workweek to 40 hours against Obama’s proposed 30 hours a week before qualifying for health insurance to encourage Americans to work more hours[http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/228953-house-votes-down-obamacares-30-hour-workweek]
| |
| − | **invest in research and development, education that matches the needs of employers
| |
| − | **permanent research and development tax credit
| |
| − | **reform disability insurance: eligibility for Social Security disability benefits would be contingent on entering a rehabilitation program and developing workplace reentry program
| |
| − | **lift the ban on crude oil exports[http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/u-s-crude-oil-export-ban]
| |
| − | *Fact checks:
| |
| − | [https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/17/republicans-want-to-reform-disability-insurance-heres-why-thats-hard/] | |
| | | | |
| − | ==Ted Cruz==
| |
| − | *[https://www.tedcruz.org/issues/jobs-and-opportunity/]Tax reform:
| |
| − | **Flat tax rate of 10% for all personal income tax brackets in which “all income groups will see a double digit increase in after-tax income”. People making under $36,000 will be tax-free
| |
| − | **“The IRS will cease to exist as we know it”
| |
| − | **claims: tax rate will boost GDP by 13.9% greater than current projections, increase wages by 12.2%, create 4,861,000 jobs
| |
| − | *Regulation:
| |
| − | **Pass the REINS Act to regulate Congressional costs
| |
| − | **Repeal Obamacare, open insurance markets across state lines, expand health savings accounts, delink health insurance from employment
| |
| − | **end EPA regulations such as the Waters of the US and Clean Power Plan
| |
| − | *Energy
| |
| − | **endorse Keystone Pipeline
| |
| − | **reduce federal impediments on oil trade
| |
| − | *American Economy
| |
| − | **create a more stable American dollar
| |
| − | **audit Federal Reserve
| |
| − | *Internet
| |
| − | **opposes Net Neutrality and Internet Sales Tax
| |
| − | *Five For Freedom Proposal
| |
| − | **Abolish the IRS and five US agencies: Department of Education, Department of Energy, Department of Commerce, Department of Housing and Urban Development
| |
| − | *25 Federal ABCs
| |
| − | **Eliminate the following agencies, bureaus, commissions, programs:
| |
| − | **Appalachian Regional Commission
| |
| − | **Climate Ready Water Utilities Initiative
| |
| − | **Climate Research Funding for the Office of Research and Development
| |
| − | **Climate Resilience Evaluation Awareness Tool
| |
| − | **Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
| |
| − | **Corporation for Public Broadcasting (privatize)
| |
| − | **Corporation for Travel Promotion
| |
| − | **Global Methane Initiative
| |
| − | **Green Infrastructure Program
| |
| − | **Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program
| |
| − | **Legal Services Corporation
| |
| − | **National Endowment for the Arts
| |
| − | **National Endowment for the Humanities
| |
| − | **New Starts Transit Program
| |
| − | **Pacific Coastal Salmon Recovery Fund
| |
| − | **Presidential Election Campaign Fund
| |
| − | **Regulation of CO2 Emissions from Power Plants and all Sources
| |
| − | **Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Vehicles
| |
| − | **Renewable Fuel Standard Federal Mandates
| |
| − | **Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation
| |
| − | **Sugar Subsidies
| |
| − | **Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery
| |
| − | **UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| − | **UN Population Fund
| |
| − | **USDA Catfish Inspection Program
| |
| − | *Grace Commission 2.0
| |
| − | **cut government spending and enhance efficiency
| |
| − | **balanced budget amendment that limits federal spending to a percentage of GDP and requires Senate “supermajority” to raise taxes
| |
| − | *Freeze on new hires in the federal executive branch, including no new job creation, no automatic position filling, no hiring of contractors
| |
| − | **filling necessary vacant positions would be at a max ratio of one new hire for every three that leave
| |
| − | **reducing the size of the federal government
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==Carly Fiorina==
| |
| − | *Regulation
| |
| − | **reduce size and simplify federal government
| |
| − | **Sign REINS and Sunset Acts
| |
| − | *Tax reform
| |
| − | **reduce length of tax code down to just three pages
| |
| − | **flat tax for individuals and businesses[https://www.carlyforpresident.com/media/example-of-3-page-tax-code.pdf]
| |
| − | **Pass the Zero Act: Zero-based budgeting of govermnent agencies: agencies start out with a budget of zero and must justify their spending requests to Congress
| |
| − | *Energy
| |
| − | **Pass the Keystone Pipeline proposal
| |
| − | **allow for hydraulic fracking and drilling on federal land
| |
| − | *Federal jobs
| |
| − | **no executive agencies can replace employees that go into retirement and move to a merit-based promotion system
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==Jim Gilmore== | + | {| class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9" |
| − | *claims that the current rate of unemployment is around 9%, when it’s actually at around 5.5% [http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000][http://www.gilmoreforamerica.com/issues/restoring-americas-economy/]
| + | |'''Drop Outs''' || |
| − | *Pass the “Growth Code” to expand business, decrease unemployment, and increase productivity
| + | |- |
| − | **15% corporate tax
| + | | [[Rick Santorum]] |
| − | **immediate first year expensing of investments
| + | |- |
| − | **simplified progressive tax of 10%, 15%, or 25% brackets and no double taxation
| + | | [[Rand Paul]] |
| − | **Family Refundable Tax Credit of $4,300 minus the tax liability for families earning below the poverty level
| + | |- |
| − | **profits earned abroad are repatriated tax free to avoid double taxation
| + | | [[Mike Huckabee]] |
| − | **no taxation on dividends or capital gains for individuals
| + | |- |
| − | **claim: the Growth Code will result in increased revenues by the Treasury, increased GDP by 14.5%, increased invested capital stock by 35.3%, increased total hours worked by 4.4%, reduce unemployment rate to 4.7%[http://www.freecongress.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/The-Growth-Code-Final-Product.pdf]
| + | | [[Carly Fiorina]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | [[Chris Christie]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | [[Martin O'Malley]] |
| | + | |} |
| | | | |
| − | ==Mike Huckabee==
| |
| − | *Proposed a FairTax system[http://www.mikehuckabee.com/_cache/files/11ce70c7-bee1-4fc0-b428-65ccdad4e7d1/B3BBF8906D52C920712799CAB662DB1F.fairtax-faq.pdf]
| |
| − | **abolish IRS and tax code
| |
| − | **eliminate all income tax, including payroll, Medicare, Social Security, and investment income taxes
| |
| − | **establish national sales tax
| |
| − | **“senior bonus payment” instead of Social Security
| |
| − | **bonus payments to poor individuals
| |
| − | **claim: the FairTax system will ensure that everyone including criminals will be required to pay the tax, since it is a sales tax instead of income tax, reinvest $22 trillion in offshore money back to the United States, grow economy by 6% each year, create millions of manufacturing jobs
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==John Kasich==
| |
| − | ==Rand Paul==
| |
| − | *[https://www.randpaul.com/issue/audit-the-fed]audit the Federal Reserve
| |
| − | *[https://www.randpaul.com/issue/spending-and-debt]balancing of the budget (Balanced Budget Amendment)
| |
| − | *cut spending, especially in areas best run by state or local government
| |
| − | *[https://www.randpaul.com/issue/taxes]Tax reform
| |
| − | **repeal the IRS
| |
| − | **14.5% tax on individuals and businesses
| |
| − | **eliminate payroll tax, gift and estate tax, duties, tariffs, telephone tax
| |
| − | **no taxation on the first $50,000 of a family of four
| |
| − | **all capital expenses for businesses are immediately expensed
| |
| − | **claim: raise after-tax income by at least 15% over the next 10 years, increase GDP by 10%, create 1.4 million jobs
| |
| − | *[https://www.randpaul.com/issue/energy]support Keystone Pipeline
| |
| − | *[https://www.randpaul.com/issue/regulation]support REINS Act
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==Marco Rubio==
| + | Poll numbers taken from real clear politics [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html] [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html] |
| − | *Tax and business reform[https://marcorubio.com/issues/21st-century-jobs-plan/]
| |
| − | **building an innovation-friendly economy would come from building a business-friendly economy
| |
| − | **lower corporate tax rate to 25%
| |
| − | **adopt territorial tax system
| |
| − | **100% expensing for business
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| − | **internet freedom: reallocate spectrum for public use and create 350,000 jobs for every 500 Mhz
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| − | **change immigration plan from family-based to skill and merit based to create more talented jobs
| |
| − | *Small Business[https://marcorubio.com/news/jobs-plan-policy-proposals/][https://marcorubio.com/news/marco-rubio-small-business-plan-policy/]
| |
| − | **repeal death tax
| |
| − | **repeal Obamacare
| |
| − | **propose National Regulatory Budget, let Congress vote on major regulations,
| |
| − | **approve of the Keystone XL Pipeline
| |
| − | **fight EPA cap-and-trade, carbon tax, and other regulations
| |
| − | **protect secret ballot for workers in union elections
| |
| − | **prohibit unions from taking worker dues for political activities
| |
| − | **remove union-imposed obstacles to workers receiving bonuses and pay increases, support RAISE Act
| |
| − | **give workers option to get paid compensation or paid leave for overtime
| |
| − | **give workers choice to join an union
| |
| − | **reform NLRB and reverse the “joint employer” decision
| |
| − | *Tax Reform[https://marcorubio.com/issues/tax-reform/]
| |
| − | **convert tax brackets into two: 15% and 35%
| |
| − | **eliminate the marriage penalty of paying more taxes than filing individually
| |
| − | *Sharing economy[https://marcorubio.com/news/sharing-economy-uber-policy-proposals/]
| |
| − | **Competition and Innovation analysis on federal rules and review any rule that hurt the competitive system
| |
| − | **opposes online sales taxes
| |
| − | **limiting tax jurisdiction on digital goods to a single address
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| − | **banning taxation on the internet
| |
| − | *Higher Education:
| |
| − | **“Student Right to Know Before You Go” Act: require institutions to tell how much money students can expect to make with a degree before taking loans to pay for it
| |
| − | **automatic income-based repayment of student loans for college graduates
| |
| − | **Student investment plans: investors can pay for student tuition in exchange for a percentage of the student’s earnings for a few years after graduation
| |
| − | **expand apprenticeship programs
| |
| − | **make federal financial aid application simpler
| |
| − | **increase hiring of non-degree workers
| |
| − | **ease access of state colleges and online education courses
| |
| − | *Energy[http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423403/securing-americas-energy-future-marco-rubio]
| |
| − | **lift ban on crude oil exports
| |
| − | **lift EPA’s Clean Power Plan
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==Rick Santorum==
| + | Prediction market prices are reported in cents. |
| − | *Tax reform[https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/santorum/pages/391/attachments/original/1444661116/Santorum_Economic_Freedom_Agenda.pdf?1444661116] | + | *PredictIt Republican [http://www.predictit.org/Market/1233/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination] and Democratic [http://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination] nomination data |
| − | **repeal the tax code | + | *Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Republican [https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/364.html] and Democratic [https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/365.html] market data |
| − | **20% flat tax on individuals, with no marriage penalty, death tax, alternative minimum tax, eliminate tax increases by Obamacare
| |
| − | **eliminate individual tax deductions except those to charities or the home mortgage interest reduction
| |
| − | **flat 20% tax on business
| |
| − | **deductible capital investments
| |
| − | **elimination of deductibility of interest expenses
| |
| − | **eliminate all other corporate deductions
| |
| − | **no Value Added Tax
| |
| − | **eliminate the IRS
| |
| − | **claims: increase GDP by 10.2% over the next 10 years, leading to economic growth by 3.3% per year, increase capital investment by 29%, increase wages by 7.3%, create 3.135 million jobs
| |
| − | *Workers:
| |
| − | **negotiate new Free Trade Agreements
| |
| − | **audit the Federal Reserve
| |
| − | **increase minimum wage by $0.50 per year for the next three years
| |
| − | *Regulations
| |
| − | **pass a Balanced Budget Amendment
| |
| − | **phase out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
| |
| − | **eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood
| |
| − | **end funding for UN programs like the UN Population Fund and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
| |
| − | **cut corporate welfare from the federal budget
| |
| − | **cut funding for the Department of Commerce, Energy, Education, Housing, Health and Human Services
| |
| − | **eliminate federal funding of education programs like Common Core, Race to the Top, and No Child Left Behind
| |
| − | *Privatize CBS
| |
| − | **reduce funding to the NLRB
| |
| − | *Energy
| |
| − | **approve Keystone Pipeline
| |
| − | **open market access to all domestic fuel production
| |
| − | **allow states to set regulations for fracking and oil exploration location
| |
| − | **Repeal Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, Sarbanes-Oxley, Obama administration policies with an economic burden greater than $100 million (including EPA rules on air standards and CO2 emissions)
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==Donald Trump== | + | =Debates= |
| − | *Tax reform [https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/trump-tax-reform.pdf]
| + | ==Democratic Party Primary Debates== |
| − | **reduce brackets to four tax brackets: 0%, 10%, 20%, 25%
| + | {| {{table}} |
| − | **eliminate marriage penalty, estate tax, and AMT
| + | | align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Date''' |
| − | **15% corporate tax
| + | | align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Transcript''' |
| − | **10% repatriation tax of corporate funds held overseas
| + | | align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Link to Highlights''' |
| | | | |
| − | =Democrats= | + | |- |
| − | ==Hillary Clinton== | + | | 13-Oct-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110903 Las Vegas, NV]||[[Oct. 13, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|10-13-15]] |
| − | ==Martin O’Malley== | + | |- |
| − | ==Bernie Sanders== | + | | 14-Nov-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110910 Des Moines, IA]||[[Nov. 14, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|11-14-15]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 19-Dec-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111178 Manchester, NH]||[[Dec. 19, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|12-19-15]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 17-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111409 Charleston, SC]||[[Jan. 17, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|01-17-16]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 11-Feb-16||TBD, WI |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 9-Mar-16||Miami, FL |
| | + | |} |
| | + | |
| | + | ==Republican Party Primary Debates== |
| | + | {| {{table}} |
| | + | | align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Date''' |
| | + | | align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Transcript''' |
| | + | | align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Link to Highlights''' |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 6-Aug-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110489 Cleveland, OH]||[[Aug. 6, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|08-06-15]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 16-Sep-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110756 Semi Valley, CA]||[[Sep. 16, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|09-16-15]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 28-Oct-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110906 Boulder, CO]||[[Oct. 28, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|10-28-15]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 10-Nov-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110908 Milwaukee, WI]||[[Nov. 10, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|11-10-15]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 15-Dec-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111177 Las Vegas, NV]||[[Dec. 15, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|12-15-15]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 14-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111395 North Charleston, SC]||[[Jan. 14, 2016 Republican Debate Highlights|01-14-16]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 28-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111412 Des Moines, Iowa]||[[Jan. 28, 2016 Republican Debate Highlights|01-28-16]] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 6-Feb-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111472 Manchester, NH] |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 13-Feb-16||Greenville, SC |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 26-Feb-16||Houston, TX |
| | + | |- |
| | + | | 10-Mar-16||TBD, FL |
| | + | |} |
| | + | |
| | + | =Caucus Results= |
| | + | [[Iowa Caucus]] |
| | + | |
| | + | Super Tuesday is on March 1st. A nice chart of when each state votes and how is available from the [http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/02/daily-chart-0 The Economist]. |
| | + | |
| | + | =Polls= |
| | + | |
| | + | Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP. His polls have risen steadily since late May 2015. Trump has held the Republican lead throughout the primary, excluding a brief period in November 2015 when Ben Carson rose within 1% of Trump. Since that spike, Carson's numbers have dipped, and the most recent poll numbers place Carson in fourth. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, polling second and third respectively, have both demonstrated gradual increases in poll numbers since September 2015. Starting the election process as a clear GOP front runner, Jeb Bush has experienced a gradual decline to under 5%. The remaining GOP candidates,including Christie, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Santorum, are each polling below 4%. (USA) |
| | + | |
| | + | Hillary Clinton polls as the Democratic front runner. She has maintained a lead in the polls since the beginning of her campaign. Her poll numbers dropped between July-September 2015, but have been on the rise since then. Bernie Sanders comes in second, with his numbers steadily on the rise since spring and summer of 2015. Martin O'Malley's numbers have remained relatively flat and have not risen above 5%. (USA) |
| | + | |
| | + | For the most up to date Presidential Campaign poll data, see USA Today's [http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/ Interactive Poll Tracker]. |
| | + | |
| | + | For data on U.S. political trends, see Pew Research Center's [http://www.pewresearch.org/data/ key indicators page]. |
| | + | |
| | + | =Baker Institute Events= |
| | + | |
| | + | [[Ed's Presentation]] |
| | + | |
| | + | ===Event 1: International Affairs=== |
| | + | |
| | + | 10th Feb 2016 |
| | + | |
| | + | Moderator: Allen Matusow |
| | + | |
| | + | Panelists: |
| | + | #Middle East - Joe Barnes |
| | + | #Trade - Russell Green |
| | + | #Immigration - Tony Payan |
| | + | #Environmental - Ronald Sass |
| | + | |
| | + | ===Event 2: Domestic Policy=== |
| | + | |
| | + | 16th Feb 2016 |
| | + | |
| | + | Moderator: Mark Jones |
| | + | |
| | + | Panelists: |
| | + | #Tax Reform - John Diamond |
| | + | #Jobs and Business Policy - Ed Egan |
| | + | #Health Policy - Vivian Ho |
| | + | #Drug Policy - Bill Martin |
| | + | |
| | + | ===Event Format=== |
| | + | |
| | + | *Introduction (EPD or moderators) |
| | + | * 10 minutes at the podium for each participant |
| | + | ** slides preferred, so we can put them online afterwards. This will help direct media to our interests |
| | + | **strict time keeping, because most audience members want to get to the Q&A |
| | + | * Moderated Q&A |
| | + | **let's aim to have the audience ask most of the questions, but the moderators should be prepared in case of lulls |
| | + | *Finish about 8pm and adjourn to the reception |
| | + | |
| | + | A template for the slides was sent out by email from Ed. |
| | + | |
| | + | =Helpful Links= |
| | + | [[Earlier versions and info from presidential candidate platforms wiki page]] |
| | + | |
| | + | *OnTheIssues (good for quotes) |
| | + | http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm |
| | + | |
| | + | *Bing Political Index |
| | + | https://www.bing.com/search?q=bing+political+index&qs=SS&pq=bing+poli&sc=8-9&sp=1&cvid=C807FAE42F3B41D1A75124B713D48522&FORM=QBRE&ghc=1 |
| | + | |
| | + | (USA) = http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/ |
