Difference between revisions of "Presidential Candidate Platforms"

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==Republicans==
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=Topic Pages=
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=Jeb Bush=  
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*[[Tax Reform]]
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*[https://jeb2016.com/policy-tax-plan/?lang=en]“They are responsible for the slowest economic recovery ever, the biggest debt increases ever, a massive tax increase on the middle class, the relentless buildup of the regulatory state, and the swift, mindless drawdown of a military that was generations in the making.”- Jeb Bush on the Obama Administration [http://time.com/3921956/jeb-bush-campaign-launch-transcript/]  
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*[[Jobs and Business Policy]]
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*Claims that Obama’s administration increased taxes, so we need an overhaul of tax code
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*[[Health Policy]]
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**Fact check: Affordable Care Act increases taxes, but the high class is getting a majority of the impact of these tax increases. Subsidies also cushion the impact of the taxes.
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*[[Drug Policy]]
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***Tax increases passed by Supreme Court would lead to an estimated cost to taxpayers over 804.6 billion dollars over the next decade [http://waysandmeans.house.gov/supreme-courts-health-law-decision-leaves-in-place-21-tax-hikes-costing-taxpayers-more-than-675-billion/][http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/jun/23/jeb-bush/jeb-bush-obama-caused-massive-tax-increase-middle-/#][http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Jeb_Bush_Corporations.htm]
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*[[Middle East]]
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*Business and corporations
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*[[Trade]]
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**Tax Proposal: Lower taxes on small business and big businesses, simplified tax code that is easier on middle class and families[http://www.newsweek.com/your-money-your-vote-newsweeks-2016-presidential-debate-live-blog-388228][https://jeb2016.com/policy-tax-plan/?lang=en]  
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*[[Immigration]]
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**reduce personal income tax brackets down to three brackets: 28%, 25%, 10% like the Reagan administration’s second tax reform
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*[[Environmental]]
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**fact check: Reagan’s 2nd tax reform wasn’t like this; it was broken into 4 groups (10%, 28%, 33%, 28%), making a tax “bubble”. Taxpayers after a certain income level paid a flat 28% tax rate [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_Reform_Act_of_1986#cite_note-4][http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/09/09/438873030/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-jeb-bushs-tax-plan]
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*[[Entrepreneurship and Innovation]]
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**cut down corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% and change it to territorial tax system (tax only on earnings made in US)[https://jeb2016.com/backgrounder-jeb-bushs-tax-reform-plan/?lang=en]  
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*[[Monetary Policy]]
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**2% cap of filer’s gross income on total tax deductions
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*[[Religion]]
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**double size of standard deduction
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*[[Quotes]]
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**double income tax credit for childless workers
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*[[Carried Interest]]
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**eliminate carried interest loophole
 
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**estimate increasing number of Americans that don’t pay tax by 15 million, bringing the number of filers with zero taxes from 40% up to 50%
 
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**claims this will help lower and middle class, but this will benefit high earners instead[http://thecge.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Fundamental-Tax-Reform-An-Essential-Pillar-of-Economic-Growth.pdf]
 
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**plan estimated to cost up to $3.4 trillion over the next decade without growth
 
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**businesses deduct new capital investments
 
  
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=Ben Carson=
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=Candidates=
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*[https://www.bencarson.com/issues/tax-reform]claims that USA has the highest corporate tax rates in the world at 35%, but this isn’t true. Japan has the world’s highest tax rates at 40% on income, 37% on domestics, and 38% for multinational corporations. Further, the average US company pays around 23% tax after deductions and MNCs pay 28% on average. This puts the US as the second highest corporate tax in the world.[http://www.forbes.com/pictures/gg45ehmhi/hey-mister-tax-man/]
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{|  class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9"
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*Claims current tax system discourages entrepreneurship and investment and inhibits growth of the economy
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|'''Republican''' || '''Current Poll Number''' || '''IEM Price''' || '''PredictIt Price'''
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*Tax proposal:
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|-
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**flat 14.9% tax (no deductions) that applies to all incomes over 150% federal poverty level
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| [[Donald Trump]]||36.2||40||49
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**tax only once (no double taxation on dividends, capital gains, interest income) at the personal level
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|-
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**eliminate deductions from home mortgage interest, charity, state and local taxes
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| [[Ted Cruz]]||19.4||16||16
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**eliminate alternative minimum tax
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|-
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**eliminate death tax
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| [[Marco Rubio]]||10.8||25.7||27
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**Claims: raise growth rate by 1.6% up to 4% annually, increase GDP by 16% in 10 years, create 5 million new jobs, increase wages by 11%
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|-
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*Fact checks
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| [[Ben Carson]]||8.2||0.1||1
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**death tax: only 0.2% of Americans are paying the estate tax currently, mainly affects a few small businesses and farmers[http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-13/why-republicans-want-a-bigger-u-s-estate-tax-repeal-than-ever]
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|-
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**There already is currently a $5.43 million exemption, so repealing the estate tax would mostly help the rich
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| [[Jeb Bush]]||4.8||-||8
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**Republican proposal to repeal estate tax would be easier on farmers that have much of their assets tied to their land
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|-
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without the tax, there is more incentive to transfer property at death rather than during life due to the reduced tax costs
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| [[John Kasich]]||2.6||-||4
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**flat tax rate plan: likely would lead to at least $1 trillion hole[http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/04/ben-carson/does-ben-carsons-tithe-based-tax-plan-lead-1-trill/]
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|}
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**AMT: eliminating it would largely benefit the wealthy, who end up having to pay the higher tax rate when their income is above a certain threshold[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_minimum_tax]  
 
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**eliminating deductions: it’s true that mortgage deductions doesn’t tend to increase housing and it mainly helps the wealthy, who use it as a housing subsidy. Most others don’t take advantage of the mortgage deduction and instead take standard deductions. Plus, home prices tend to be higher than they would be without the deductions, which offsets the benefits from the deduction and discourages home ownership.[http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/06/the-sacrosanct-mortgage-interest-deduction/?_r=0][http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/pat-garofalo/2015/11/11/what-ben-carson-got-right-about-taxes-in-the-4th-republican-debate]
 
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**eliminating double taxation on dividends, etc. would encourage more people to retain most of their income in stocks and pay zero taxes on dividend earnings from stock
 
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double taxation on capital gains: very controversial topic, some say that lowering it will encourage investment in companies that are more risky but also putting forward progressive technologies; others say that the reduced tax would largely benefit the wealthy[http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-should-capital-gains-be-taxed-1425271052]
 
  
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=Chris Christie=
 
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https://d70h9a36p82zs.cloudfront.net/Ccpres2016/base/assets/1-0-1/production/Chris-Christie-TheEconomy.pdf
 
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Tax reform:
 
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reduce corporate tax rate to 25%
 
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cap on total deductions individuals and married couples can make
 
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reduce income tax brackets to three brackets, with the highest bracket taxed at 28%, single digit for lowest bracket
 
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eliminate payroll tax on individuals over 62 and under 25
 
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Economy
 
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revert the workweek to 40 hours against Obama’s proposed 30 hours a week before qualifying for health insurance to encourage Americans to work more hours http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/228953-house-votes-down-obamacares-30-hour-workweek
 
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invest in research and development, education that matches the needs of employers
 
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permanent research and development tax credit
 
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reform disability insurance: eligibility for Social Security disability benefits would be contingent on entering a rehabilitation program and developing workplace reentry program
 
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lift the ban on crude oil exports http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/u-s-crude-oil-export-ban
 
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Fact checks:
 
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/17/republicans-want-to-reform-disability-insurance-heres-why-thats-hard/
 
  
 +
{|  class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9"
 +
|'''Democratic''' || '''Current Poll Number''' || '''IEM Price''' || '''PredictIt Price'''
 +
|-
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| [[Hillary Clinton]]||52.5||68.2||70
 +
|-
 +
| [[Bernie Sanders]]||37.2||27||28
 +
|}
  
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=Ted Cruz=
 
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=Carly Fiorina=
 
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=Jim Gilmore=
 
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=Mike Huckabee=
 
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=John Kasich=
 
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=Rand Paul=
 
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=Marco Rubio=
 
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=Rick Santorum=
 
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=Donald Trump=
 
  
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==Democrats==
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=Hillary Clinton=
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{|  class="wikitable sortable" style="border: 1px solid darkgray; bgcolor: #f9f9f9"
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=Martin O’Malley=
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|'''Drop Outs''' ||
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=Bernie Sanders=
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|-
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| [[Rick Santorum]]
 +
|-
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| [[Rand Paul]]
 +
|-
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| [[Mike Huckabee]]
 +
|-
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| [[Carly Fiorina]]
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|-
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| [[Chris Christie]]
 +
|-
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| [[Martin O'Malley]]
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
 
 +
 
 +
Poll numbers taken from real clear politics [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html] [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html]
 +
 
 +
Prediction market prices are reported in cents.
 +
*PredictIt Republican [http://www.predictit.org/Market/1233/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination] and Democratic [http://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination] nomination data
 +
*Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Republican [https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/364.html] and Democratic [https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/365.html] market data
 +
 
 +
=Debates=
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==Democratic Party Primary Debates==
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{| {{table}}
 +
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Date'''
 +
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Transcript'''
 +
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Link to Highlights'''
 +
 
 +
|-
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| 13-Oct-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110903 Las Vegas, NV]||[[Oct. 13, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|10-13-15]]
 +
|-
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| 14-Nov-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110910 Des Moines, IA]||[[Nov. 14, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|11-14-15]]
 +
|-
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| 19-Dec-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111178 Manchester, NH]||[[Dec. 19, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|12-19-15]]
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|-
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| 17-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111409 Charleston, SC]||[[Jan. 17, 2015 Democratic Debate Highlights|01-17-16]]
 +
|-
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| 11-Feb-16||TBD, WI
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|-
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| 9-Mar-16||Miami, FL
 +
|}
 +
 
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==Republican Party Primary Debates==
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{| {{table}}
 +
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Date'''
 +
| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Transcript'''
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| align="center" style="background:#f0f0f0;"|'''Link to Highlights'''
 +
|-
 +
| 6-Aug-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110489 Cleveland, OH]||[[Aug. 6, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|08-06-15]]
 +
|-
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| 16-Sep-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110756 Semi Valley, CA]||[[Sep. 16, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|09-16-15]]
 +
|-
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| 28-Oct-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110906 Boulder, CO]||[[Oct. 28, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|10-28-15]]
 +
|-
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| 10-Nov-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=110908 Milwaukee, WI]||[[Nov. 10, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|11-10-15]]
 +
|-
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| 15-Dec-15||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111177 Las Vegas, NV]||[[Dec. 15, 2015 Republican Debate Highlights|12-15-15]]
 +
|-
 +
| 14-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111395 North Charleston, SC]||[[Jan. 14, 2016 Republican Debate Highlights|01-14-16]]
 +
|-
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| 28-Jan-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111412 Des Moines, Iowa]||[[Jan. 28, 2016 Republican Debate Highlights|01-28-16]]
 +
|-
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| 6-Feb-16||[http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=111472 Manchester, NH]
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|-
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| 13-Feb-16||Greenville, SC
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|-
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| 26-Feb-16||Houston, TX
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|-
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| 10-Mar-16||TBD, FL
 +
|}
 +
 
 +
=Caucus Results=
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[[Iowa Caucus]]
 +
 
 +
Super Tuesday is on March 1st. A nice chart of when each state votes and how is available from the [http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/02/daily-chart-0 The Economist].
 +
 
 +
=Polls=
 +
 
 +
Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP. His polls have risen steadily since late May 2015. Trump has held the Republican lead throughout the primary, excluding a brief period in November 2015 when Ben Carson rose within 1% of Trump. Since that spike, Carson's numbers have dipped, and the most recent poll numbers place Carson in fourth. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, polling second and third respectively, have both demonstrated gradual increases in poll numbers since September 2015. Starting the election process as a clear GOP front runner, Jeb Bush has experienced a gradual decline to under 5%. The remaining GOP candidates,including Christie, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Santorum, are each polling below 4%. (USA)
 +
 
 +
Hillary Clinton polls as the Democratic front runner. She has maintained a lead in the polls since the beginning of her campaign. Her poll numbers dropped between July-September 2015, but have been on the rise since then. Bernie Sanders comes in second, with his numbers steadily on the rise since spring and summer of 2015. Martin O'Malley's numbers have remained relatively flat and have not risen above 5%. (USA)
 +
 
 +
For the most up to date Presidential Campaign poll data, see USA Today's [http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/ Interactive Poll Tracker].
 +
 
 +
For data on U.S. political trends, see Pew Research Center's [http://www.pewresearch.org/data/ key indicators page].
 +
 
 +
=Baker Institute Events=
 +
 
 +
[[Ed's Presentation]]
 +
 
 +
===Event 1: International Affairs===
 +
 
 +
10th Feb 2016
 +
 
 +
Moderator: Allen Matusow
 +
 
 +
Panelists:
 +
#Middle East - Joe Barnes
 +
#Trade - Russell Green
 +
#Immigration - Tony Payan
 +
#Environmental - Ronald Sass
 +
 
 +
===Event 2: Domestic Policy===
 +
 
 +
16th Feb 2016
 +
 
 +
Moderator: Mark Jones
 +
 
 +
Panelists:
 +
#Tax Reform - John Diamond
 +
#Jobs and Business Policy - Ed Egan
 +
#Health Policy - Vivian Ho
 +
#Drug Policy - Bill Martin
 +
 
 +
===Event Format===
 +
 
 +
*Introduction (EPD or moderators)
 +
* 10 minutes at the podium for each participant
 +
** slides preferred, so we can put them online afterwards. This will help direct media to our interests
 +
**strict time keeping, because most audience members want to get to the Q&A
 +
* Moderated Q&A
 +
**let's aim to have the audience ask most of the questions, but the moderators should be prepared in case of lulls
 +
*Finish about 8pm and adjourn to the reception
 +
 
 +
A template for the slides was sent out by email from Ed.
 +
 
 +
=Helpful Links=
 +
[[Earlier versions and info from presidential candidate platforms wiki page]]
 +
 
 +
*OnTheIssues (good for quotes)
 +
http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm
 +
 
 +
*Bing Political Index
 +
https://www.bing.com/search?q=bing+political+index&qs=SS&pq=bing+poli&sc=8-9&sp=1&cvid=C807FAE42F3B41D1A75124B713D48522&FORM=QBRE&ghc=1
 +
 
 +
(USA) = http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/

Latest revision as of 17:28, 12 February 2016

Topic Pages

Candidates

Republican Current Poll Number IEM Price PredictIt Price
Donald Trump 36.2 40 49
Ted Cruz 19.4 16 16
Marco Rubio 10.8 25.7 27
Ben Carson 8.2 0.1 1
Jeb Bush 4.8 - 8
John Kasich 2.6 - 4


Democratic Current Poll Number IEM Price PredictIt Price
Hillary Clinton 52.5 68.2 70
Bernie Sanders 37.2 27 28


Drop Outs
Rick Santorum
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Carly Fiorina
Chris Christie
Martin O'Malley


Poll numbers taken from real clear politics [1] [2]

Prediction market prices are reported in cents.

  • PredictIt Republican [3] and Democratic [4] nomination data
  • Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) Republican [5] and Democratic [6] market data

Debates

Democratic Party Primary Debates

Date Transcript Link to Highlights
13-Oct-15 Las Vegas, NV 10-13-15
14-Nov-15 Des Moines, IA 11-14-15
19-Dec-15 Manchester, NH 12-19-15
17-Jan-16 Charleston, SC 01-17-16
11-Feb-16 TBD, WI
9-Mar-16 Miami, FL

Republican Party Primary Debates

Date Transcript Link to Highlights
6-Aug-15 Cleveland, OH 08-06-15
16-Sep-15 Semi Valley, CA 09-16-15
28-Oct-15 Boulder, CO 10-28-15
10-Nov-15 Milwaukee, WI 11-10-15
15-Dec-15 Las Vegas, NV 12-15-15
14-Jan-16 North Charleston, SC 01-14-16
28-Jan-16 Des Moines, Iowa 01-28-16
6-Feb-16 Manchester, NH
13-Feb-16 Greenville, SC
26-Feb-16 Houston, TX
10-Mar-16 TBD, FL

Caucus Results

Iowa Caucus

Super Tuesday is on March 1st. A nice chart of when each state votes and how is available from the The Economist.

Polls

Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP. His polls have risen steadily since late May 2015. Trump has held the Republican lead throughout the primary, excluding a brief period in November 2015 when Ben Carson rose within 1% of Trump. Since that spike, Carson's numbers have dipped, and the most recent poll numbers place Carson in fourth. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, polling second and third respectively, have both demonstrated gradual increases in poll numbers since September 2015. Starting the election process as a clear GOP front runner, Jeb Bush has experienced a gradual decline to under 5%. The remaining GOP candidates,including Christie, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Fiorina, and Santorum, are each polling below 4%. (USA)

Hillary Clinton polls as the Democratic front runner. She has maintained a lead in the polls since the beginning of her campaign. Her poll numbers dropped between July-September 2015, but have been on the rise since then. Bernie Sanders comes in second, with his numbers steadily on the rise since spring and summer of 2015. Martin O'Malley's numbers have remained relatively flat and have not risen above 5%. (USA)

For the most up to date Presidential Campaign poll data, see USA Today's Interactive Poll Tracker.

For data on U.S. political trends, see Pew Research Center's key indicators page.

Baker Institute Events

Ed's Presentation

Event 1: International Affairs

10th Feb 2016

Moderator: Allen Matusow

Panelists:

  1. Middle East - Joe Barnes
  2. Trade - Russell Green
  3. Immigration - Tony Payan
  4. Environmental - Ronald Sass

Event 2: Domestic Policy

16th Feb 2016

Moderator: Mark Jones

Panelists:

  1. Tax Reform - John Diamond
  2. Jobs and Business Policy - Ed Egan
  3. Health Policy - Vivian Ho
  4. Drug Policy - Bill Martin

Event Format

  • Introduction (EPD or moderators)
  • 10 minutes at the podium for each participant
    • slides preferred, so we can put them online afterwards. This will help direct media to our interests
    • strict time keeping, because most audience members want to get to the Q&A
  • Moderated Q&A
    • let's aim to have the audience ask most of the questions, but the moderators should be prepared in case of lulls
  • Finish about 8pm and adjourn to the reception

A template for the slides was sent out by email from Ed.

Helpful Links

Earlier versions and info from presidential candidate platforms wiki page

  • OnTheIssues (good for quotes)

http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm

  • Bing Political Index

https://www.bing.com/search?q=bing+political+index&qs=SS&pq=bing+poli&sc=8-9&sp=1&cvid=C807FAE42F3B41D1A75124B713D48522&FORM=QBRE&ghc=1

(USA) = http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/poll-tracker-2016/

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