Introduction

This page is an overview of the Status Quo of U.S. Economy.

Unemployment Data

All information gathered from BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Original Data Value Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status: Unemployment rate Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over Years: 2006 to 2016

Quotes from "The Employment Situation- January 2016" News Release by the BLS)

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, led by retail trade, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. Employment declined in private educational services, transportation and warehousing, and mining."

Household Survey Data

• Both the number of unemployed persons, at 7.8 million, and the unemployment rate, at 4.9 percent, changed little in January. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.1 million and 0.8 percentage point, respectively.
• Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.5 percent) and Whites (4.3percent) declined in January. The jobless rates for adult women (4.5 percent), teenagers (16.0 percent), Blacks (8.8 percent), Asians (3.7 percent), and Hispanics (5.9 percent) showed little change over the month.
• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged in January, at 2.1 million, and has shown little movement since June. These individuals accounted for 26.9 percent of the unemployed.
• After accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls, the civilian labor force and total employment, as measured by the household survey, were little changed in January. The labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, was little changed. The employment-population ratio (59.6 percent) changed little over the month but was up by 0.3 percentage point since October.
• The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 6.0 million in January but was down by 796,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs.
• In January, 2.1 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little different from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
• Among the marginally attached, there were 623,000 discouraged workers in January, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in January. Employment rose in several industries, led by retail trade, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. Private educational services and transportation and warehousing lost jobs. Mining employment continued to decline.

• Retail trade added 58,000 jobs in January, following essentially no change in December. Employment rose in general merchandise stores (+15,000), electronics and appliance stores (+9,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000), and furniture and home furnishing stores (+7,000).
• Employment in retail trade has increased by 301,000 over the past 12 months, with motor vehicle and parts dealers and general merchandise stores accounting for nearly half of the gain.
• Employment in food services and drinking places rose in January (+47,000). Over the year, the industry has added 384,000 jobs.
• Health care continued to add jobs in January (+37,000), with most of the increase occurring in hospitals (+24,000). Health care has added 470,000 jobs over the past 12 months, with about two-fifths of the growth occurring in hospitals.
• Manufacturing added 29,000 jobs in January, following little employment change in 2015. Over the month, job gains occurred in food manufacturing (+11,000), fabricated metal products (+7,000), and furniture and related products (+3,000).
• Employment in financial activities rose in January (+18,000). Job gains occurred in credit intermediation and related activities (+7,000).
• Private educational services lost 39,000 jobs in January due to larger than normal seasonal layoffs.
• Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 20,000 in January. Most of the loss occurred among couriers and messengers (-14,000), reflecting larger than usual layoffs following strong seasonal hiring in the prior 2 months.
• Employment in mining continued to decline in January (-7,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014, employment in the industry has fallen by 146,000, or 17 percent.
• Employment in "professional and business services" changed little in January (+9,000), after increasing by 60,000 in December. Within the industry, professional and technical services added 25,000 jobs over the month, in line with average monthly gains over the prior 12 months. Employment in temporary help services edged down in January (-25,000), after edging up by the same amount in December.
• Employment in other major industries, including construction, wholesale trade, and government, changed little over the month. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours in January.
• The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
• In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 12 cents to $25.39. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent. In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 6 cents to $21.33.

GDP

Real gross domestic product

Real GDP, the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes, increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 26, 2016.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in federal government spending.

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the third.

The price index for gross domestic purchases

The price index for GDP, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.

Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP, the market value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, increased 1.5 percent, or $68.1 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $18,128.2 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $146.5 billion.

Disposition of personal income

• Current-dollar personal income increased $137.1 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $190.8 billion in the third. The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected a downturn in personal interest income and decelerations in wages and salaries and in farm proprietors’ income.

• Personal current taxes increased $25.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $22.3 billion in the third.

• Disposable personal income increased $111.3 billion, or 3.3 percent, in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $168.5 billion, or 5.1 percent, in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.

• Personal outlays increased $72.6 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $131.7 billion in the third.

• Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $739.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $700.6 billion in the third.

• The personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income,was 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the third.

2015 GDP Growth

Real GDP increased 2.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual level), the same rate as in 2014.

• The increase in real GDP in 2015 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

• Comparing real GDP growth in 2015 with growth in 2014, real GDP increased 2.4 percent in both years, though there were offsetting movements in the components. Decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and an acceleration in imports were offset by accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and accelerations in private inventory investment and in state and local government spending.

• The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent in 2015, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2014.

• Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $589.8 billion, in 2015 to a level of $17,937.8 billion, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent, or $684.9 billion, in 2014.

• During 2015 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015), real GDP increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during 2014. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.3 percent during 2015, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent during 2014.

From News Release by the BEA

DOW Jones Industrial Average

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DOW as of Monday, February 8th, 2016 3:08 P.M. is at 16,027. Exact price/change/% change can be found at Market Watch.

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Venture Capital Investment Data

The venture capital ecosystem deployed $58.8 billion across the United States in 2015, marking the second highest full year total in the last 20 years, according to the MoneyTree™ Report from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) and the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), based on data provided by Thomson Reuters. For the fourth quarter of 2015, venture capitalists invested $11.3 billion into 962 deals, down 32 percent in dollars and 16 percent in deals compared with the third quarter when $16.6 billion was invested in 1,149 deals. The fourth quarter also marks the eighth consecutive quarter of more than $10 billion of venture capital invested in a single quarter, but also represents the smallest amount invested since the third quarter of 2014. “The convergence of technology across sectors is becoming increasingly important and has emerged as a common thread as companies with innovative, disruptive technologies and business models continue to catch the eyes of investors,” said Tom Ciccolella, US Venture Capital Market Leader at PwC. “The fourth quarter’s largest deals included startups that deploy technologies to challenge incumbents in the financial services, education, retail and consumer industries. These emerging tech-enabled segments have disrupted traditional industries and should continue to command a larger portion of venture capital dollars in 2016 and beyond.”

“With almost $60 billion deployed to startup companies in 2015, the venture capital ecosystem is strong and healthy, and committed to helping entrepreneurs get their breakthrough ideas off the ground and into the marketplace,” said Bobby Franklin, President and CEO of NVCA. “While a handful of unicorns and late-stage funding rounds by nontraditional investors continue to grab the headlines, more than half of all deals in 2015 went to seed and early stage companies, with more than 1,400 companies raising venture capital for the first time. Entrepreneurs in 46 states and the District of Columbia raised venture capital in 2015, a testament to the reach of the venture capital industry and the strength of startup ecosystems across America.”

From article in NVCA

Charts from PWC Money Tree

Industry Analysis

• As has been the recent trend, the Software industry continued to receive the highest level of funding of all industries in the fourth quarter, receiving $4.5 billion going into 369 deals for the quarter, despite being down 24 percent in dollars and 17 percent in deals compared to the third quarter. For the full year of 2015, Software was up 8 percent in dollars, but down 5 percent in deals, compared with 2014. Four of the top 10 megadeals in the fourth quarter went to Software companies.

• The Biotechnology industry received the second largest amount of venture capital for the quarter, with $1.5 billion going into 95 deals. While dollars invested declined 32 percent and the number of deals declined 25 percent compared with the third quarter, Biotech ended the year up 17 percent in dollars and relatively flat in deals for the full year 2015, compared with the previous year. Despite ranking second in terms of dollars invested, Biotech did not secure any of the Top 10 deals.

• Investments in the Life Sciences sector (Biotechnology and Medical Devices combined) during the fourth quarter accounted for $2 billion going into 172 deals, declining 31 percent in dollars and 16 percent in deals, compared with the third quarter. Like in the previous quarter, Life Sciences investments accounted for 18 percent of all venture capital deployed to the startup ecosystem in the fourth quarter. In 2015, Life Sciences dollars were up 12 percent and deals were down 3 percent, compared with 2014.

• Media & Entertainment companies received the third largest amount of venture capital for the quarter with $881 million deployed across 114 deals, which is a 40 percent decrease in dollars compared to the third quarter, despite a 14 percent increase in number of deals. Additionally, only one of the top 10 megadeals was within the Media & Entertainment space in the fourth quarter. For calendar year 2015, Media & Entertainment dollars remained flat, and deals were down 13 percent versus 2014.

NVCA

Venture-backed IPO's

• Seventy-seven venture-backed initial public offerings (IPOs) raised $9.4 billion in 2015, marking a 40 percent decline in dollars raised compared to 2014, according to the Exit Poll Report by Thomson Reuters and the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA).
• For the fourth quarter, 16 venture-backed IPOs raised $2.2 billion, an 18 percent increase compared to the total dollars raised during the previous three-month period and up slightly compared to the number of offerings listed during the third quarter of 2015.
• Ninety-one venture-backed M&A deals were reported in the fourth quarter, 26 of which had an aggregate deal value of $3.6 billion, decreasing 48 percent compared to the third quarter of this year.
• For full year 2015, 372 M&A transactions were reported, with 84 deals combining for a disclosed value of $16.3 billion, the slowest full year period for venture-backed M&A since 2009.
• There were 16 venture-backed IPOs valued at $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015.
• By number of deals, quarterly volume was up slightly compared to the third quarter of 2015 but registered an 18 percent increase, by dollars, compared to the previous quarter.
• Led by biotechnology companies, eight of the 16 offerings during the quarter were life sciences IPOs, representing half of the total listings in the fourth quarter.
• By location, 13 of the quarter’s 16 IPOs were from U.S.-based companies.

NVCA

Small Business Birth and Death Rate

Brookings Institute Business Dynamism Report

• Business dynamism is the process by which firms continually are born, fail, expand, and contract, as some jobs are created, others are destroyed, and others still are turned over.
• Entrepreneurs key
• Recent research shows that dynamism is slowing down
  • Across a broad range of sectors in the U.S. economy, even in high-tech
  • National decline in business dynamism has been a widely shared experience
• Implies a continuation of slow growth for the indefinite future, unless for equally unknown reasons or by virtue of entrepreneurship-enhancing policies (such as liberalized entry of high-skilled immigrants), these trends are reversed