Tag: Investment

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McNair Center Startup Ecosystems

Houston’s Next Step: The Role of Funds of Funds in Venture Capital

Recently, Houston Exponential announced plans to create a venture capital Fund of Funds (VC FOF) to support the local entrepreneurship ecosystem. This strategy has been used by other cities and regions, such as Michigan and Cincinnati, to spur local startup growth. Private firms also offer VC Fund of Funds. What does this type of fund look like, and how has it played out in other locations?

The Basics

FOFs are funds that invest in multiple smaller funds. The increased diversification that they offer investors makes them attractive. However, there is a risk of overlap with FOFs; the many funds that make up the FOF may invest in the same entities. FOFs also may carry additional fees over a traditional fund because the the investor also has to pay the fees for the funds that constitute the larger FOF.

A VC FOF specifically invests in multiple venture capital funds. These venture capital funds then invest in local startups, entrepreneurs, and small businesses investment. FOFs diversify investors’ portfolios by ensuring investment in a wide variety of companies. Many venture capital funds make up VC FOFs,  so their success depends on what investments the constituent VC funds make. In the private sector, the advertised appeal of  VC FOFs is diversification, early liquidity, and enhanced fund returns.

FOFs can also exist through firms that typically invest in mature companies and buy all of each company’s equity, known as “Buyout FOFs.” The Chicago Booth Review claims that VC FOFs offer more diversification than Buyout FOFs, with an average of 7 more individual funds in each VC FOF. The research also indicates that VC FOFs are “more likely, through fund selection and/or access, to overcome their additional layer of fees” than buyout FOFs. This suggests that VC FOFs may bring investors higher value than buyout FOFs.

Impact on Cities

The trend towards creating VC FOFs to boost local innovation began about a decade ago. In 2008, Michigan created the Renaissance Venture Capital Fund. The premise behind the fund was simple: “Venture capital is important for economic growth and [Michigan is] underserved in the amount of venture capital available to fund exciting new ideas and technologies.” By investing specifically in VC funds that are active in Michigan, the Renaissance VC Fund provides the necessary capital for Michigan startups to grow and thrive.

Currently, the fund claims to receive a 21:1 return on every dollar they invest. With this success, they have grown; the fund has offices in both Ann Arbor and Detroit. Figure 1 shows the spike in investment and deals following the introduction of the Renaissance Fund. However, investment and deals seemed to have tapered off in recent years. Nonetheless, the new plateau does seem to be slightly higher than the average values before the fund was introduced.

Figure 1: Michigan saw large increases in investment in 2010 and 2011. Deals then peaked in 2013. Michigan introduced the Renaissance Fund in 2008.

In 2012, Cincinnati created a fund modeled on Michigan’s Renaissance Fund. Cincinnati-based corporations, like Kroger and Proctor & Gamble, created the Cintrifuse Early Stage Capital Fund I, LLC, which exclusively makes seed and early-stage investments in local startups.

According to Cintrifuse, the fund has resulted in a net increase of $24 million in value to the city. Figure 2 shows the spike in deals in both 2012 and 2014. Investment also peaked in 2014, relatively soon after the fund’s introduction. Nonetheless, the introduction of this program seemed to have no noticeable impact on Cincinnati’s overall GDP in 2012 and afterwards. The number of deals and amount invested have also declined substantially since 2014.

Figure 2: Cincinnati’s VC deals spiked in 2012 and 2014. The city created Centrifuse in 2012.

What Will This Mean for Houston?

VC Fund of Funds seem to carry benefits for both investors and local VC/startup culture. However, no plan to boost growth is a guaranteed success. Michigan and Cincinnati have demonstrated that it is difficult to maintain momentum with these funds. These cities’ experiences teach us that the fund needs to place a sustained emphasis on providing capital to the local region. McNair Center research indicates there are about 50 VC firms in Houston. This means that there are firms for which the FOF can provide capital. These VC firms can then disburse funds to local businesses.

On the other side of the equation, Houston will need local entrepreneurs and startups in which VC can invest. According to McNair Center research, there are approximately 20 startups active within the 610 loop. However, looking outside the loop to the greater Houston area, there is an abundance of startups. Nonetheless, the industries in which these startups focus may not be as desirable for investors as others. Houston’s startups do not tend to focus on one specific industry, although medicine and energy are popular. Since tech is one of the most desirable fields for investment right now, Houston’s tech startup scene may need to develop further if a VC FOF is to succeed.

Both sides of this equation need to be present in order for VC FOF to successfully boost the city’s innovation scene. If this is the case, there is hope that a VC FOF could provide a welcome boost to Houston’s ecosystem.

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McNair Center Startup Ecosystems

Entrepreneurship for All: Washington D.C.

Washington D.C.

Washington, D.C. is known for its politicians and bureaucrats, but it’s also where the top-20 U.S. government contractors are based. In recent decades, high-tech, high-growth entrepreneurship has been on the rise in the U.S. capital. Startup ventures, coupled with a diverse economy, largely fueled by the federal government, have led D.C. to emerge as a strong entrepreneurial ecosystem.

History of Entrepreneurship

The diversified needs of the federal government have led to a varied ecosystem. Feldman 2001 concludes that two unique conditions impacted the development of D.C.’s entrepreneurial culture: underemployed skilled labor caused by federal job cuts and the commercial exploitation of intellectual property rights from publicly funded research.

Changes in federal employment policy through the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 led the federal government to outsource goods and services in an effort to reduce civil service jobs.

The Federal Technology Transfer Act of 1986 created the Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs) as a mechanism whereby nonfederal entities can collaborate with federal laboratories on research and development projects. CRADAs aim to promote technological competitiveness and technology transfer to marketable products.

Biotech found a partner in the federal government through CRADAs. Proximity to federal labs has created an important biotechnology cluster attracting Merck and Pfizer among others, as well as startups MedImmune and Human Genome Sciences, later acquired by GlaxoSmithKline.

Other notable startups that emerged under the public-private sector collaboration include Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies, Inc. (SGT), who provides scientific and IT service solutions to a wide array of federal government agencies nationwide including NASA and the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Government outsourcing opportunities benefitted the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) industry. The earliest ITC entrepreneurs were government contractors, who began working on ARPANET, the predecessor of the internet.

When the federal government removed the commercial restriction on the use of internet in 1989, former contractors became tech startups with ample opportunities to grow their ventures.

Resources in D.C.

AOL is a prominent ICT company launched in the D.C. metropolitan area during the 1990s dot-com boom. AOL is also credited for shaping the region’s entrepreneurial ecosystem. Prior to its relocation to Manhattan, AOL funded Fishbowl Labs, a business incubator located at its Dulles campus. Fishbowl Labs provides resources to startups at no cost and a mentorship program through its employee network.

The company also invested in firms such as the D.C.-based tech hub incubator 1776. The incubator is modeled after 1871 in Chicago and the General Assembly incubator in New York. Notable companies currently working with 1776 include Babyscripts, Cowlar and MUrgency. 1776 organizes networking events for the government innovator community to promote the interconnectivity of startups and D.C.’s main consumer, the federal government.

Washington D.C. boasts four top universities in the immediate area with entrepreneurship programs: The Sustainable Entrepreneurship and Innovation Initiative at American University, Startup Hoyas at Georgetown University, Mason Innovation Lab at George Mason University and The Office of Entrepreneurship and Innovation at George Washington University.

Current D.C. Startups

Washington D.C.’s economy is stable and diverse. As of February 2017, the area had an unemployment rate of 2.5% and the gross product of the area was $471 billion in 2014, making it the sixth-largest U.S. metropolitan economy.

D.C.’s ecosystem has historically been linked to government agencies, but more recently, the startup community has had greater diversity. Notable startups out of D.C. include LivingSocial, iStrategyLabs and CoFoundersLab. Advertising company iStrategyLabs has created devices and advertising campaigns for 21 Fortune 500 companies. CoFoundersLab connects entrepreneurs via an online network.

The success of LivingSocial has invigorated the D.C. ecosystem with a new generation of startups. Borrowing Magnolia, a wedding dress rental business, Galley, a freshly prepared food delivery service, and online custom framing business, Framebridge, are among the ventures founded by LivingSocial alumni.

Venture Capital in Washington, D.C.

The D.C. startup scene is home to a number of influential venture capital firms that help invigorate the ecosystem. Venture Capital investment in D.C. has reached around $350 million in investment for years 2014 and 2016, with investment lower than $200 million in 2015.

According to a report from the Martin Prosperity Institute detailing worldwide VC investment in high-tech startups, D.C. is ranked eighth in the world with a total cumulative venture capital investment of $835 million until year 2012 (the most recent year these detailed data are available).

Data indicating the number of first-round deals in D.C. illustrate a stable ecosystem with an average of 36 first-round deals per year in the last five years.

One of the largest venture capital firms in the world, New Enterprise Associates (NEA), calls both D.C. and Silicon Valley home. In 2015, NEA’s fourteenth investment fund closed with $3.1 billion in investor capital, making it the largest venture capital fund ever raised. NEA invests in technology and health care companies around the world, but continues to support companies in D.C. such as online movie player SnagFilms and software producer Cvent. 

A diverse portfolio of venture capital firms are settled in the ecosystem to guarantee funding sustainability. Fortify Ventures, an early stage technology investment fund, nurtures investors and entrepreneurs. Fortify has received $100,000 in funding from the D.C. mayor’s office. D.C. startup, Social Tables, recently raised $13 million in Series B funding from Fortify Ventures and other investors.

Other notable venture capital firms in the D.C. area include Groundwork VC, a fund for minority founders, New Atlantic Ventures, a firm that invests in early stage startups and NextGen Venture Partners, which transitioned from an angel network into a venture capital firm this year.

D.C. venture capital investment is strong, but compared to areas such as San Francisco, which posted over six billion dollars in venture capital investment, San Jose (approximately $4 billion) and Boston (approximately $3 billion), VC investment in D.C. still has room to grow.

Startup-Friendly Government Policy

Local government policy incentivizes companies to move to or remain in D.C. The District waives corporate income taxes for the first five years and provides new-hire wage reimbursements for startups. However, D.C.’s regulatory environment still implies high costs for obtaining business licenses and permits.

Washington’s venture capital firms, angel networks and private investors cannot compete with the extensive network and resources in established ecosystems like Silicon Valley or the Research Triangle in North Carolina. According to Dow Jones VentureSource, about 50% of all venture capital invested in the United States goes to companies in Silicon Valley.

Despite Silicon Valley’s dominance, D.C.’s location, culture and resources position it as a strong ecosystem. D.C. will continue to take advantage of the resources and opportunities presented by the federal government.

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Government and Policy McNair Center

Global Policy Uncertainty and U.S. Stock Trends

The Financial Times has predicted that “the rise of Donald Trump may already be casting a shadow over the global economy.”

When it comes to the Trump Administration, the world is unsure what policies to expect. Trump’s positions on international trade and tendency toward nationalist policies are a concern for the rest of the world. However, the U.S. stock market is performing at record-breaking highs. Economic research has linked policy uncertainty to stock market slowdowns. If this is so, why is the American stock market responding so positively?

Policy Uncertainty

With President Trump’s unprecedented actions and unpredictable behavior, policy uncertainty seems like the only thing that is certain. With unbroken ties to his family businesses, casual use of Twitter, and frequent attacks on the media, President Trump is shaping up to be different than any president that America has seen before.

When it comes to policy, much of the Trump administration’s plans are unclear. Throughout his campaign, Trump took many different positions on major issues. For example, Trump claimed in multiple campaign speeches that the wealthy should pay higher taxes, saying “Right now they are paying very little tax and I think it’s outrageous.” However, in Trump’s August 2016 tax plan, the top 20 percent of earners would receive 67 percent of the overall individual tax cuts.

Whitehouse.gov also contains pages on high-priority goals for the Trump administration, such as the military, jobs and growth, and energy. However, it offers minimal details as to how the administration plans to accomplish these goals.

Uncertainty and Investment

Typically, we expect policy uncertainty to affect investment, reflected through stock markets and other economic measures. Moody’s Analytics explains that uncertainty theoretically raises the cost of capital, postpones consumer spending and creates an incentive for employers to slow hiring and investing.

Economists Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business developed an economic model that directly related policy uncertainty and stock prices. The model predicts that stock prices respond negatively to policy uncertainty; when uncertainty is large, the reaction is largely negative.

A study by Scott Baker of Northwestern University, Nick Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago found that policy uncertainty also negatively affects firm employment and investment. “Firms with greater exposure to government purchases experience greater stock price volatility when policy uncertainty is high and reduced investment rates and employment growth when policy uncertainty rises,” the authors explain. Citing household hesitations in spending, finance cost increases, and risk aversive behavior, and market rigidities/frictions as factors, the researchers claim that uncertainty can deeply impact decisions at a microeconomic level.

Nonetheless, scholars still do not completely understand the true effects of policy uncertainty on the economy. Moody’s Analytics found that “a sudden spike [in uncertainty] can have economic costs, but it can also be used as an excuse for weakness in the economy when there could be other clear causes;” this is especially true during presidential elections. The study asserted that policy uncertainty will likely remain high as the Trump Administration enacts new policies; however, the economic costs attributed directly to policy uncertainty will likely remain minimal.

Current Uncertainty and Economic Trends

Quantitatively, it is clear that global policy uncertainty is reaching unforeseen levels. In January 2017, the month of Trump’s inauguration, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reached the highest levels observed since the index began in the late 1990s.

The World Bank cites policy uncertainty as a cause for economic slowdowns in 2016-2017. Emerging market economies and world trade performance are both weaker now than in previous years.

When we focus in on United States, however, the narrative is different. The U.S. stock market has been

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Trump_address_to_joint_session_of_Congress_2.jpg
On March 1, the President Trump addressed a joint session of congress and the Dow closed at over 21,000 points for the first time.

performing relatively well since Trump’s election. Following an initial negative reaction on the morning of November 9, stock markets have reached new heights since November. On the first day of March, the Dow broke records by closing above 21,000 points for the first time, and in mid-March, the Nasdaq composite hit an all-time high.

Why has the U.S. Economy Responded this Way?

There are many potential reasons why the U.S. stock market has responded so positively in the face of high global policy uncertainty.

“Major international institutions such as the IMF, the OECD and World Bank have recently upgraded their forecasts of global economic growth largely due to expectations that tax cuts, rising infrastructure spending and a wave of deregulation will boost the US economy under the new president,” the Financial Times claims. All three of these proposals are good signs for the stock market. Trump’s intended timeline for these policies is unclear, but stock markets may be betting that they will be implemented eventually.

The stock market’s strong performance could also be linked to Trump’s approval ratings. A study by Ned Davis Research found that a low presidential approval rating corresponds with gains in the stock market. According to Gallup, Trump’s approval are ratings lower than any other president that they have tracked in 72 years. The NDR research only specified that there is a correlation between these two factors, but not causation. If there is any deeper causal connection between presidential approval ratings and stocks, then Trump’s low approval rating could explain recent trends.

Will it Last?

There is also a possibility that this boom is only temporary. Economist Larry Summers believes that this is the case. He cites future nationalist policies and increasing insider sales, among other factors, as the potential downfall of U.S. stocks. Along with this, Foreign Policy argues that the Trump Administration is taking the wrong approach to boosting the economy; most of the benefits will be enjoyed by the wealthy. Research shows that fiscal spending that focuses on helping low-income individuals/families has a more positive long-run economic impact. However, the Trump Administration is not placing much emphasis on these types of programs. Further, Trump has even suggested cutting large portions of programs meant to help low-income Americans.

Conclusion

It is too early to predict what the next four years will mean for the economy. Although news outlets and social media may make it feel as though unprecedented amounts of uncertainty to the United States, the economy does not seem to be responding to this uncertainty negatively, at least for now. In the short term, we can view this as a positive trend; nonetheless, we must be wary of any potential downturns in the future.
The author would like to acknowledge Dr. Russell Green at Rice University’s Baker Institute for providing the idea and framework for this post.