Tag: Donald Trump

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Government and Policy McNair Center

The Carried Interest Debate

In the 2016 election, carried interest and its taxation was a hot topic. Often explained as a “loophole” that allows the rich to exploit tax codes, carried interest is not a political issue that clearly fits within party lines. Lobbying by the financial sector occurs on both sides of the political aisle, and there are opponents and supporters within both parties. What are the dynamics of this debate, and what are the arguments for whether carried interest should be taxed differently?

Private Investment Funds

In the 2016 election, both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton rallied against “hedge-funds” for paying so little tax. However, these comments were misleading. Clinton and Trump were actually talking about a tax rule that applies to a range of private investment funds.

A private investment fund invests capital with the goal of making returns for its investors. But within this description there is a lot of variety in the types of funds. Funds vary in their sources of capital, the targets of their investments and the roles they play in the economy.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fund_Structure.pngPrivate investment funds are typically set up as limited partnerships, rather than limited liability companies (LLCs). They organize themselves as general partners and limited partners. The general partners are the funds’ managers, which may be structured as a managing firm. Managing firms are often incorporated as an LLC. The limited partners are the funds’ investors. They are called limited partners because they are required to have limited involvement in the funds day-to-day activities. These investors are usually financial institutions, pension funds, insurance companies and wealthy individuals.

Rewarding General Partners

General partners invest in their own funds (typically contributing less than 5 percent of the capital) to make money. However, their compensation comes through management fees and carried interest. Usually around 2 percent of a fund’s raised capital goes to management fees.  Management fees are paid regardless of the fund’s performance and are there to cover operating costs and base salaries.

When a firm is set up it negotiates how excess returns – those paid after invested capital has been repaid – are shared. An 80/20 split between investors and managers is typical. Managers with strong track records can and do negotiate for more, sometime even offering to forgo management fees.  This 20 or so percent that goes to the managers is called “the carry” or, formally, the carried interest.

Types of Private Investment Funds

Common types of private investment funds include private equity funds, venture capital funds, hedge-funds and mutual funds.

Private equity funds generally invest in large companies with the intent to restructure and sell the firms for a gain. These investments usually mean acquiring controlling interests in public companies through stock purchases. The fund will then take the company private. Private companies can then be sold to another buyer or back to the public with a new initial public offering. However, private equity firms do also sometimes acquire private companies.

Venture capital funds invest in high-tech startup companies with high-growth potential. Once the fund purchases a stake in the company, it also provides coaching and other services to the company in order to increase its chances of success. Venture capital funds sell their positions at initial public offerings or when their portfolio companies get sold to incumbents or private equity firms.

Hedge funds focus on achieving high returns through risky investments. They differ from mutual funds in the diversity of their strategies and their underlying assets. Mutual funds typically only take long positions in stocks and bonds. Hedge funds can invest in anything. Their underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities, derivatives, warrants, futures, options, currencies, land, real-estate and much else besides. Hedge funds will often simultaneously take both long and short leveraged positions.

Tax Treatment

The carried interest controversy stems from its tax treatment. Carried interest is subject to a maximum capital gains tax rate of 20 percent (the long-term capital gains rate). This is compared to the maximum ordinary income tax rate of 39.6 percent, which is also the maximum short-term capital gains rate.

Those in favor of the current system believe that a higher rate would reduce the incentive for general partners to take risks. They sometimes specifically claim that greater taxes on carried interest could discourage innovation and efficiency in markets.

Those opposed to a reduced tax rate for carried interest frequently argue that carried interest is performance-based compensation.  Comparing it to a bonus, they say that it should be subject to the ordinary income rate.

The controversy surrounding carried interest has faced increasing media scrutiny since the 2012 election. Former Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney paid taxes of just $1.9 million on $13.69 million in income in 2011, an effective rate of 14.1 percent  Perhaps in response to the media and public uproar, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 raised what was then the long-term capital gains tax rate of 15 percent to 20 percent. President Obama signed this change into law on January 2, 2013.

The Economics

To economists the key question is one of efficiency: Would free markets achieve the efficient outcome without the additional incentive that carried interest provides? The answer probably depends on the type of private investment firm.

Venture capitalists face enormous information problems when trying to assess their potential investments. And many of their portfolio firms create value for outsiders who aren’t investors and who don’t use the firm’s products themselves. Each of these reasons leads to inefficient under-investment, which carried interest could help address.

Hedge-funds may make markets more complete by allowing investors to place capital into a wider range of underlying assets. Private equity firms may provide a “market for management” that disciplines publicly-traded firms. It is possible that without these types of investment vehicle there would be market failure, but it is unclear that they need additional incentives to address it.

Because mutual funds just aggregate and manage stock and bond portfolios – a job done by brokers and investors themselves – it is hard to see why they need subsidizing.

Looking to the Future

The House Republicans’ 2016 Tax Reform Proposal includes no explicit mention of carried interest. However, it does advocate for “reduced but progressive” capital gains taxes. If the administration chooses to adopt this plan, carried interest tax breaks could become even larger.

However, it is difficult to predict the fate of carried interest tax breaks, especially given President Trump’s past statements. During his campaign, Trump was highly critical of these tax breaks. He claimed that fund managers were “getting away with murder” by taking advantage of the rule. However, since taking office, Trump Administration has made no mention of its plans to address this tax code provision. The administration plans to reform U.S. tax law in the coming year, so carried interest is definitely a topic to look out for.

See the McNair Center’s wiki page on Carried Interest for further explanation of the dynamics of carried interest.

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McNair Center Weekly Roundup

Weekly Roundup on Entrepreneurship 3/31

Weekly Roundup is a McNair Center series compiling and summarizing the week’s most important Entrepreneurship and Innovation news.

Here is what you need to know about entrepreneurship this week:

Business Groups Hope Trump Can Change Health Law by Administrative Action

Jeffrey Sparshott, Reporter, The Wall Street Journal

Juanita Duggan, CEO of the National Federation of Independent Businesses, described the unraveling of the American Health Reform Act as “a dismal failure.”

Despite several nationwide organizations like the National Retail Federation, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers pushing lawmakers to support the plan, Republicans could not build a consensus for the bill.

Not all small business owners favored the GOP bill. According to Tom Embley, CEO of Precision AirConvey Corp., a Newark manufacturing company that employs 40 workers, the proposed plan wouldn’t have done “anything to lower costs” for his firm.

More Than Obamacare Repeal, Small Businesses Want Congress to Rein in Costs

Stacy Cowley, Reporter, The New York Times

The New York Times’ Cowley reports on health care reform as told from the perspective of small businesses. While small businesses have been some of the most outspoken critics of the ACA since its passage in in 2010, the group as a whole is actually fairly divided on the issue; according to Manta and BizBuySell, approximately 60 percent of small business owners want the ACA to be repealed.

As Cowley points out, “every business is uniquely affected by the complex law.” She spoke to small business owners across the country, representing a variety of regions and industries. Two themes were common: The lack of sustainability of the status quo and the need for bipartisan reform. One thing Congress’s recent health care drama did accomplish was to reveal small businesses’ growing disdain for Congress’s inability to find common ground and deliver policy stability.

Early-Stage Investment for Software Startups Holds Steady

Alex Wilhelm, Editor In Chief, Crunchbase News

A recent Crunchbase report reviews the performance of younger SaaS companies after a year of relatively illiquid market for late-stage SaaS startups in 2016.

SaaS, or software as a service, refers to “firms that sell software products on a recurring basis.” As Wilhelm notes, SaaS firms constitute an “important part of the modern startup landscape.” According to Crunchbase analysis, early and mid-stage SaaS startups experienced relatively tame Series A and B funding rounds last year, despite the sector as a whole putting on a poor showing for enterprise IPOs when compared to 2015.

Wilhelm suggests that the better-than-expected fundraising aggregates indicate investor confidence that “the late-stage and public markets would figure out SaaS, or a blind willingness to follow a plan that was supposed to work.”

Kushner to Oversee Office of American Innovation at White House

Michael C. Bender, Reporter, The Wall Street Journal

President Trump recently announced the opening of a new White House office, the Office of American Innovation (OAI). The new White House office, tasked with mimicking “private-sector efficiency inside the federal government,” will be led by Jared Kusher, senior policy advisor and son-in-law to President Trump. The office will oversee a number of ambitious task forces, including the taskforce that will be headed by Governor Chris Christie to address the opioid epidemic.

According to Press Secretary, the OAI will address both long-term and urgent needs, such as” modernizing information technology” and “streamlining the Department of Veteran Affairs.” Additionally, the office will conduct communications with many executives, including prominent Silicon Valley CEOs who visited the White House in recent months.

 

Ask a Female Engineer: How Can Managers Help Retain Technical Women on Their Team?

Cadran Cowansage, software engineer at Y Combinator Blog

Y Combinator’s Cowansage attempts to understand why women tend to step out of technical positions more frequently than their male counterparts. Cowansage asked several female engineers about their past decisions to leave their technical position at a specific company or the industry entirely. Interestingly, many of the responses don’t specifically address gender-driven workplace conflicts or discrimination. Instead, many of the women attribute their departures to irreconcilable differences with company management.

Startups often lack formal HR departments. Impartial organizational roles, like senior HR employees, who are distanced from the executive team are valuable resources; these positions offer employees an outlet for voicing their complaints without fear of jeopardizing their job status. Additionally, many women left their previous engineering positions due to lack of shareholder attention to the project they were dedicated to. Another commonly voiced problem during the interviews was rejection of requests for a promotion or raise. The interviews revealed that many women were willing to leave their company when they learned that employees with less experience were earning higher salaries or bonuses.

Startups Increasingly Turning to Debt Financing Despite Dangers

Mikey Tom, Reporter, PitchBook

PitchBook’s Tom shares some insight from  2016 Annual VC Valuations Report. According to the report, median early-stage valuations and the tally of firms that exited the market at a lower valuation than their most recent valuation reached an all-time high. As Tom points out, “rather than raising a new equity round at a sub-optimal valuation or seeking a premature liquidity event,” startups are increasingly relying on debt financing for cash. In fact, excluding 2016, the number of startups composed of debt has increased since 2008. Notably, many of the massive tech unicorns, like Airbnb and Uber, raised billion dollar loans in recent years.

Tom acknowledges the attractiveness of debt financing for many startups, but he forewarns founders of the dangers of accumulating too much debt: “if a startup is unable to achieve the amount of growth it forecasts, the debt ends up acting as more of a time bomb than growth equity.”

Categories
Government and Policy McNair Center

Global Policy Uncertainty and U.S. Stock Trends

The Financial Times has predicted that “the rise of Donald Trump may already be casting a shadow over the global economy.”

When it comes to the Trump Administration, the world is unsure what policies to expect. Trump’s positions on international trade and tendency toward nationalist policies are a concern for the rest of the world. However, the U.S. stock market is performing at record-breaking highs. Economic research has linked policy uncertainty to stock market slowdowns. If this is so, why is the American stock market responding so positively?

Policy Uncertainty

With President Trump’s unprecedented actions and unpredictable behavior, policy uncertainty seems like the only thing that is certain. With unbroken ties to his family businesses, casual use of Twitter, and frequent attacks on the media, President Trump is shaping up to be different than any president that America has seen before.

When it comes to policy, much of the Trump administration’s plans are unclear. Throughout his campaign, Trump took many different positions on major issues. For example, Trump claimed in multiple campaign speeches that the wealthy should pay higher taxes, saying “Right now they are paying very little tax and I think it’s outrageous.” However, in Trump’s August 2016 tax plan, the top 20 percent of earners would receive 67 percent of the overall individual tax cuts.

Whitehouse.gov also contains pages on high-priority goals for the Trump administration, such as the military, jobs and growth, and energy. However, it offers minimal details as to how the administration plans to accomplish these goals.

Uncertainty and Investment

Typically, we expect policy uncertainty to affect investment, reflected through stock markets and other economic measures. Moody’s Analytics explains that uncertainty theoretically raises the cost of capital, postpones consumer spending and creates an incentive for employers to slow hiring and investing.

Economists Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business developed an economic model that directly related policy uncertainty and stock prices. The model predicts that stock prices respond negatively to policy uncertainty; when uncertainty is large, the reaction is largely negative.

A study by Scott Baker of Northwestern University, Nick Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago found that policy uncertainty also negatively affects firm employment and investment. “Firms with greater exposure to government purchases experience greater stock price volatility when policy uncertainty is high and reduced investment rates and employment growth when policy uncertainty rises,” the authors explain. Citing household hesitations in spending, finance cost increases, and risk aversive behavior, and market rigidities/frictions as factors, the researchers claim that uncertainty can deeply impact decisions at a microeconomic level.

Nonetheless, scholars still do not completely understand the true effects of policy uncertainty on the economy. Moody’s Analytics found that “a sudden spike [in uncertainty] can have economic costs, but it can also be used as an excuse for weakness in the economy when there could be other clear causes;” this is especially true during presidential elections. The study asserted that policy uncertainty will likely remain high as the Trump Administration enacts new policies; however, the economic costs attributed directly to policy uncertainty will likely remain minimal.

Current Uncertainty and Economic Trends

Quantitatively, it is clear that global policy uncertainty is reaching unforeseen levels. In January 2017, the month of Trump’s inauguration, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reached the highest levels observed since the index began in the late 1990s.

The World Bank cites policy uncertainty as a cause for economic slowdowns in 2016-2017. Emerging market economies and world trade performance are both weaker now than in previous years.

When we focus in on United States, however, the narrative is different. The U.S. stock market has been

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Trump_address_to_joint_session_of_Congress_2.jpg
On March 1, the President Trump addressed a joint session of congress and the Dow closed at over 21,000 points for the first time.

performing relatively well since Trump’s election. Following an initial negative reaction on the morning of November 9, stock markets have reached new heights since November. On the first day of March, the Dow broke records by closing above 21,000 points for the first time, and in mid-March, the Nasdaq composite hit an all-time high.

Why has the U.S. Economy Responded this Way?

There are many potential reasons why the U.S. stock market has responded so positively in the face of high global policy uncertainty.

“Major international institutions such as the IMF, the OECD and World Bank have recently upgraded their forecasts of global economic growth largely due to expectations that tax cuts, rising infrastructure spending and a wave of deregulation will boost the US economy under the new president,” the Financial Times claims. All three of these proposals are good signs for the stock market. Trump’s intended timeline for these policies is unclear, but stock markets may be betting that they will be implemented eventually.

The stock market’s strong performance could also be linked to Trump’s approval ratings. A study by Ned Davis Research found that a low presidential approval rating corresponds with gains in the stock market. According to Gallup, Trump’s approval are ratings lower than any other president that they have tracked in 72 years. The NDR research only specified that there is a correlation between these two factors, but not causation. If there is any deeper causal connection between presidential approval ratings and stocks, then Trump’s low approval rating could explain recent trends.

Will it Last?

There is also a possibility that this boom is only temporary. Economist Larry Summers believes that this is the case. He cites future nationalist policies and increasing insider sales, among other factors, as the potential downfall of U.S. stocks. Along with this, Foreign Policy argues that the Trump Administration is taking the wrong approach to boosting the economy; most of the benefits will be enjoyed by the wealthy. Research shows that fiscal spending that focuses on helping low-income individuals/families has a more positive long-run economic impact. However, the Trump Administration is not placing much emphasis on these types of programs. Further, Trump has even suggested cutting large portions of programs meant to help low-income Americans.

Conclusion

It is too early to predict what the next four years will mean for the economy. Although news outlets and social media may make it feel as though unprecedented amounts of uncertainty to the United States, the economy does not seem to be responding to this uncertainty negatively, at least for now. In the short term, we can view this as a positive trend; nonetheless, we must be wary of any potential downturns in the future.
The author would like to acknowledge Dr. Russell Green at Rice University’s Baker Institute for providing the idea and framework for this post.

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McNair Center Weekly Roundup

Entrepreneurship Weekly Roundup: 11/11/2016

Weekly Roundup is a McNair Center series compiling and summarizing the week’s most important Innovation and Entrepreneurship news.

Here is what you need to know about entrepreneurship this week:

Small Businesses Can Expect Policy Changes Under Trump

The Associated Press

Entrepreneurs might expect policy shifts under a Trump presidency. Trump has released his plan for his first 100 days in office. However, much uncertainty over his policies and objectives remains. The battle over health care and immigration reform, taxes, regulation, the federal minimum wage, trade deals and federal contracts will be fought in a Republican-led congress that has not always agreed with the President-elect’s proposals.

David Levin, CEO of the American Sustainable Business Council, expressed the concern of many small business owners in the US: “What we don’t know is whether or not there is a sincere interest in supporting small and medium-size enterprises in this country — rebuilding Main Street, rebuilding manufacturing.”

With Election Over, Small Firms Look to Hire, Invest

Ruth Simon, Author, Wall Street Journal

With the uncertainty of the election partly resolved, some small business owners have said that they are ready to begin investing and hiring. According to a recent Vistage Worldwide poll of 380 small business owners, 49 percent of respondents said that the election of the outcome had improved their outlook for the economy. Nearly 20 percent stated that the election results encouraged them to increase their hiring or capital investment. Many point to the prospect of lower taxes and healthcare costs as sources for their optimism.

Not all business owners surveyed viewed the election’s outcome positively. 35 percent responded that their outlook for the economy had worsened. Roughly 20 percent planned on decreasing hiring and investment. Many are wary of Trump’s tough position on immigration, which could make the search for high-skilled workers more costly.

Black-Owned Businesses Face Credit Gap

Ruth Simon and Paul Overberg, Authors, The Wall Street Journal

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2014 Survey of Entrepreneurs, black entrepreneurs are less likely to ask for capital when they need it. When they do ask, black entrepreneurs are not as likely to receive the full amount that they requested.

Black entrepreneurs in 2014 were three times more likely than white entrepreneurs to say that they were in need of additional financing but opted not to apply for it. Compared with 74 percent of white entrepreneurs, only 46 percent of black entrepreneurs received the full amount of funding that they had requested.

Simon cites challenges in access to capital and funding as obstacles for black entrepreneurs who are trying to grow their businesses. According to Alicia Robb, a senior fellow from the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, “Across the board, blacks have higher denial rates, even after controlling for credit and wealth.”

How Lucrative Startups Can Avoid Disruption as They Grow

Jason Albanese, Contributor, Inc.

Jason Albanese, CEO and founder of Centric Digital, offers advice to startups looking to be the next Google or Facebook by redefining their industry. Revolutionary startups are often some of the most lucrative and successful in their field.

Market-shaking startups frequently fail to maximize their potential because market and operational disruptions often go hand in hand. Disruptive startups need to take time to grow at their own pace. Entrepreneurs cannot afford to rush the incubation period.

Most market ecosystems eventually find a new equilibrium; Airbnb and Uber recently experienced this within their industries. Albanese recommends that market-shifters foster and embrace change within company culture. Adaptivity, creativity and agility are instrumental in introducing and surviving a market disruption.

6 Strategic Business Practices For Freelance Entrepreneurs

Sam Cohen, Contributor, Huffington Post

The life of a freelance entrepreneur is uncertain and irregular. For example, daily operations lack the typical structure and comfort level that most industry jobs offer. On the other hand, self-employed entrepreneurs get to set their own work schedules and define the rules and best practices for their companies.

Despite the obvious discrepancy between freelance entrepreneurship and corporate culture, Sam Cohen recommends that entrepreneurs borrow business practices, such as building up cash reserves and establishing a performance review process, from bigger industry players.

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McNair Center Weekly Roundup

Innovation Weekly Roundup: 11/11/16

Weekly Roundup is a McNair Center series compiling and summarizing the week’s most important Entrepreneurship and Innovation news.

Here is what you need to know about innovation this week:

Silicon Valley Reels in Wake of Trump’s Presidential Victory

Joshua Brustein and Eric Newcomer, Bloomberg

Silicon Valley tech giants became unlikely political players in this election cycle. The results of the election leave the Valley in an uncertain position. Clinton received 114 times the amount of campaign contributions than Trump from the tech industry, so it should come as no surprise that a Trump presidency was not the industry’s favored outcome. The immediate threat to tech companies with the election of Donald Trump is the possibility of stringent immigration restrictions. Restrictions on immigration make it difficult for high skilled employees to work in the US. Furthermore, Trump’s lack of a clear plan for technology and the tech sector has left the industry in a state of limbo.

Election Day’s Tech-Related Triumphs — and Failures

Jamie Condliffe, MIT Tech Review

Many ballot initiatives on Tuesday were tech-related. Florida voted against an initiative that would have forced those with solar installations to give up payments for energy they feed back into the grid. The outcome will promote the expansion of home solar. Nevada voted to deregulate its electrical market. In transportation innovation, Seattle approved a $54 billion project to develop 62 miles of light rail and 37 new rail stations. Washington state rejected the first carbon tax in the US, partly over concerns that it failed to raise enough revenue for clean energy projects. Montana voted against a proposal to establish and allocate $20 million to the Montana Biomedical Research Authority.

How the tech industry is reacting to Donald Trump’s improbable victory

Paul Sawers, Contributor, VentureBeat

While Trump has been outspoken on economic reform, he largely did not address the the technology industry. While Paypal Founder Peter Thiel supported Trump throughout his candidacy, the majority of tech entrepreneurs expressed dismay over the possibility of Trump presidency. VentureBeat’s Sawers includes several Tuesday night tweets from tech industry leaders on the outcome of the election.

Results of the Clarity of the Record Pilot

Michelle K. Lee, USPTO Director & Under Secretary of Commerce for Intellectual Property

USPTO completed its Clarity of the Record Pilot, a program within the Enhanced Patent Quality Initiative. The Clarity of the Record Pilot enhances patent quality by identifying best practices for clarifying aspects of the prosecution record.

68 unique data points were measured, and each point represents a best practice. Examples of best practices include separately addressing independent claims or providing specific limitations in claims that are anticipated by prior reference when used to reject multiple claims. During the pilot, examiners used 14 percent more best practices in pilot cases as opposed to a control group.

The USPTO will be holding a Patent Quality Conference on December 13 to share more information on the Enhancing Patent Quality Initiative.

Women in STEM: Closing the Gap

Taylor Jacobe, Research Assistant, McNair Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation

McNair’s Taylor Jacobe focuses on the slow growth in women’s presence in STEM and innovation. Jacobe provides robust, global evidence of the economic benefits of integrating women into the workforce and encouraging girls to pursue careers in these fields.

The Obama administration has made efforts to introduce such initiatives, including work-life balance programs and speaking tours with successful women. However, much work remains in combating gender inequality in the workplace, especially within the STEM fields.

The solution to this inequity is neither simple nor obvious. Jacobe recommends a combination of policy changes aimed at eliminating cultural barriers for women and increasing education opportunities for girls.

Women represent 19.6% of the staff at the top 25 tech companies

Dean Takahashi, Contributor, VentureBeat

A recent study by hiring firm HiringSolved reveals that women constitute only 19.6 percent of staff at the top 25-tech companies. The study indicates a critical need for  integration of women into technology and innovation.

Many Silicon Valley tech giants have introduced measures to address the gender imbalance in their workforce. HiringSolved’s study relies on machine learning and artificial intelligence to sift through its databases of information on gender, ethnicity, and age. Although the firm’s methods are by no means foolproof, the results are telling.

Thank you to Meghana Gaur for contributing to this week’s innovation roundup.