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Business Dynamism in High Tech (Issue Brief) (view source)
Revision as of 16:39, 10 June 2016
, 16:39, 10 June 2016no edit summary
'''Conclusion:'''
The pace of business dynamism, as measured by the pace of job reallocation, has declined in the high-tech sector in the post-2002 period at a pace that exceeds that of the overall economy.
2. [http://econweb.umd.edu/~haltiwan/Haltiwanger_Kauffman_Conference_August_1_2015.pdf Top Ten Signs of Declining Business Dynamism and Entrepreneurship in the U.S.]
'''Key points in business dynamism in high-tech'''
*Prior to 2000 key sectors like high tech as well as publicly traded firms exhibited a rise in indicators of dynamism. The evidence shows that in high tech, high growth young firms play an especially critical role in job creation and productivity growth. However, since 2000 the high tech sector has exhibited a decline in dynamism.
*Prior to 2000, the decline in the startup rate was dominated by sectors like retail trade. Since 2000 there has been a sharp decline in the startup rate in key innovative sectors like high tech. The decline has been substantial enough that the net entry rate has turned negative in the last several years.
*In some sectors like retail trade a case can be made that the declining dynamism has largely been benign, reflecting a shift in the business model to large, national chains that are both more productive and more stable. However, in other sectors such as high tech, such arguments are less persuasive. In this respect, it is worth noting that the acceleration in the decline in dynamism and the decline in dynamism in key innovative sectors like high tech in the post-2000 period coincides with a decline in U.S. economic growth whether measured by productivity or job growth.
'''Possible explanations'''
In General:
*One possible explanation is increased barriers to adjustment for firms and workers. The decline in the employment-at-will doctrine contributes nontrivially to the decline in business dynamism. Likewise the rapid increase in occupational licensing requirements may be an important factor.
*Another possible explanation is that more recent generations are more risk averse. There has been a shift in the willingness to take on the risks that are inherent in a highly entrepreneurial economy. One possible hypothesis is that something in the economic environment has changed that makes taking on risk less attractive.
High-tech Specific:
*It may be that the U.S. has become relatively less attractive for the type of dynamic, entrepreneurial activity that has been its hallmark. Some have speculated that the U.S. is still the place to develop and design new products and processes but it is relatively less attractive as the place to produce such new products. In considering these issues, this is not an argument against globalization since this brings greater economic efficiency and considerable gains to consumers. Likewise further innovations in IT will raise productivity and yield gains to consumers. But it may be that the U.S. is less well positioned to deal with the inevitable disruptions that occur when there are structural changes such as IT and globalization.
==References==
