P. Anderson and M. Tushman: Technological Discontinuities and Dominant Design: A Cyclical Model of Technological Change.

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Theory

The authors propose a cyclical model of technological change. In their model, A technological discontinuity occurs followed by an era of ferment which is characterized by design competition and substitution. Next, a dominant design emerges, and an era of incremental change follows. This era is characterized by elaboration of dominant design.

Hypothesis

1. The mean number of new designs introduced during the era of ferment is greater than during the era of incremental change.
2. The era of ferment following a competence destroying discontinuity is longer than the era of ferment following a competence enhancing discontinuity.
3. The era of ferment grows shorter in each series of consecutive competence-enhancing discontinuities.
4. In regimes of low appropriability a single dominant design will emerge following each technological discontinuity.
5. After each technological discontinuity, sales of all versions of the new technology will peak after the emergence of a dominant design, not during the era of ferment.
6. A technological discontinuity will not itself become a dominant design.
7. A dominant design will not be located on the frontier of technical performance at the time it becomes dominant.
8. Dominant designs arising from competence-destroying discontinuities will be initiated by new entrants in the industry while dominant designs arising from competence-enhancing discontinuities will be initiated by firms whose entrance preceded the discontinuity.
9. Most of the total performance improvement of the lifetime of a technology will occur outside the era of incremental change.

Methodology

Two of Tushman and Anderson's (1986) product classes Portland cement manufacture and minicomputer manufactures. The hypothesis were tested using data from these two industries. See the results section of the paper.