Small Business Data

Council of Economic Advisers

Year	Expert?	Name	Field of Expert	CEA Size	Percent	Grade
1979	0	-	-	13	0.00%	F
1980	0	-	-	15	0.00%	F
1981	0	-	-	16	0.00%	F
1982	0	-	-	15	0.00%	F
1983	0	-	-	15	0.00%	F
1984	0	-	-	12	0.00%	F
1985	0	-	-	14	0.00%	F
1986	0	-	-	15	0.00%	F	*junior staff with IO and Finance Darrel L. Williams
1987	0	-	-	12	0.00%	F	*junior staff with IO, Regulation and Finance Randall S. Kroszner
1988	0	-	-	13	0.00%	F
1989	0	-	-	13	0.00%	F
1990	1	Adam B. Jaffe	Regulation, Energy, and R&D	13	7.69%	A
1991	0	-	-		0.00%	F
1992	0	Andrew S. Joskow	Regulation, Energy, and Industrial Organization	13	0.00%	B
1993	0	Jonathan B. Baker	Regulation, Industrial Organization, and Law	16	0.00%	B
1994	0	Jonathan B. Baker	Regulation, Industrial Organization, and Law	15	0.00%	B
1995	0	Marius Schwartz	Regulation, Industrial Organization, and Antitrust	15	0.00%	B
1996	0	Timothy J. Brennan	Regulation, Industrial Organization, and Antitrust	13	0.00%	B
1997	0	Aaron S. Edlin	Regulation, Industrial Organization, and Antitrust	13	0.00%	B
1998	0	Howard A. Shelanski	Regulation, Industrial Organization, and Antitrust	11	0.00%	B
1999	0	William H. Gillespie	Industrial Organization	12	0.00%	B
2000	0	Peter G. Klein	Industrial Organization	11	0.00%	B
2001	0	-	-	11	0.00%	F
2002	0	Cindy R. Alexander	Industrial Organization, Corporate Finance, and Regulation	11	0.00%	B
2003	0	-	-	11	0.00%	F
2004	0	-	-	11	0.00%	F
2005	0	-	-	12	0.00%	F
2006	0	Kristin McCue	Labor, Small Business, and Economic Development	11	0.00%	B
2007	0	John Stevens	Macroeconomics, Labor, Small Business	11	0.00%	B
2008	0	-	-	11	0.00%	F
2009	0	-	-	9	0.00%	F
2010	1	Ronnie Chatterji	Entrepreneurship and Innovation	10	10.00%	A
2011	2	Lee G. Bransetter; Lisa D. Cook	International Trade and Investment, Innovation, and Manufacturing; International Finance, Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Development	11	18.18%	A
2012	1	Susan Helper	Manufacturing, Innovation, Small Business	11	9.09%	A
2013	0	David Balan	Industrial Organization, Technology, Health	12	0.00%	B
2014	1	Timothy Simcoe	Innovation, Technology, Industrial Organization	11	9.09%	A
2015	1	Robert C. Seamans	Innovation, Technology, Industrial Organization	11	9.09%	A
2016	1	Victor Bennet	Innovation, Technology, Industrial Organization	13	7.69%	A

Firm Births & Deaths

Chart 5. Quarterly establishment births and deaths, 1993?2015
Quarter		Births
Mar-93	?	167,000
Jun-93	181,000	160,000
Sep-93	191,000	148,000
Dec-93	182,000	154,000
Mar-94	185,000	164,000
Jun-94	196,000	162,000
Sep-94	201,000	156,000
Dec-94	192,000	174,000
Mar-95	197,000	161,000
Jun-95	193,000	167,000
Sep-95	193,000	168,000
Dec-95	195,000	174,000
Mar-96	204,000	173,000
Jun-96	198,000	171,000
Sep-96	205,000	174,000
Dec-96	216,000	175,000
Mar-97	211,000	180,000
Jun-97	210,000	175,000
Sep-97	207,000	173,000
Dec-97	200,000	189,000
Mar-98	222,000	186,000
Jun-98	226,000	173,000
Sep-98	209,000	185,000
Dec-98	203,000	188,000
Mar-99	213,000	194,000
Jun-99	219,000	192,000
Sep-99	209,000	194,000
Dec-99	224,000	189,000
Mar-00	227,000	196,000
Jun-00	218,000	189,000
Sep-00	222,000	209,000
Dec-00	215,000	204,000
1-Mar	220,000	214,000
1-Jun	217,000	212,000
1-Sep	218,000	219,000
1-Dec	209,000	208,000
2-Mar	219,000	199,000
2-Jun	228,000	196,000
2-Sep	217,000	193,000
2-Dec	216,000	200,000
3-Mar	215,000	194,000
3-Jun	212,000	194,000
3-Sep	210,000	191,000
3-Dec	218,000	191,000
4-Mar	222,000	193,000
4-Jun	218,000	196,000
4-Sep	224,000	196,000
4-Dec	226,000	191,000
5-Mar	227,000	196,000
5-Jun	232,000	192,000
5-Sep	236,000	195,000
5-Dec	236,000	200,000
6-Mar	236,000	195,000
6-Jun	233,000	206,000
6-Sep	224,000	210,000
6-Dec	236,000	207,000
7-Mar	232,000	205,000
7-Jun	225,000	215,000
7-Sep	233,000	216,000
7-Dec	228,000	218,000
8-Mar	226,000	224,000
8-Jun	221,000	238,000
8-Sep	216,000	233,000
8-Dec	211,000	253,000
9-Mar	197,000	247,000
9-Jun	201,000	238,000
9-Sep	192,000	227,000
9-Dec	202,000	218,000
10-Mar	193,000	211,000
10-Jun	193,000	202,000
10-Sep	207,000	204,000
10-Dec	216,000	201,000
11-Mar	204,000	200,000
11-Jun	210,000	206,000
11-Sep	205,000	196,000
11-Dec	214,000	198,000
12-Mar	237,000	187,000
12-Jun	216,000	195,000
12-Sep	211,000	196,000
12-Dec	218,000	183,000
13-Mar	204,000	192,000
13-Jun	222,000	215,000
13-Sep	219,000	195,000
13-Dec	215,000	186,000
14-Mar	220,000	189,000
14-Jun	220,000	?
14-Sep	225,000	?
14-Dec	223,000	?
15-Mar	233,000	?
Note: Dashes indicate not applicable.

Small Business Portion of GDP

	1998		1999		2000		2001		2002		2003		2004
Private NonFarm GDP	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent
Small Business GDP	3,578,026	50.50%	3836070	50.50%	4,068,879	50.30%	4,190,264	50.30%	4,139,771	48.30%	4,299,941	48.10%	4,522,139	47.50%
Compensation	1,951,708	48.30%	2076019	47.70%	2,231,086	47.20%	2,287,128	46.90%	2,334,808	47.30%	2,410,676	47.00%	2,520,466	46.90%
Nonlabor Components	1,626,318	53.40%	1760051	54.30%	1,837,793	54.80%	1,903,136	55.00%	1,804,963	49.50%	1,889,265	49.50%	2,001,673	48.30%
Large Business GDP	3,506,662	49.50%	3757240	49.50%	4,016,765	49.70%	4,143,305	49.70%	4,439,604	51.70%	4,646,881	51.90%	4,998,306	52.50%
Compensation	2,089,914	51.70%	2276711	52.30%	2,498,680	52.80%	2,586,543	53.10%	2,599,265	52.70%	2,719,761	53.00%	2,852,510	53.10%
Nonlabor Components	1,416,748	46.60%	1480529	45.70%	1,518,085	45.20%	1,556,762	45.00%	1,840,339	50.50%	1,927,120	50.50%	2,145,796	51.70%
	2005		2006		2007		2008		2009		2010
Private NonFarm GDP	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent	Dollars	Percent
Small Business GDP	4,698,197	46.30%	4,948,040	46.10%	5,182,230	46.20%	5,217,082	45.80%	5,080,329	46.00%	5,210,469	44.60%
Compensation	2,650,841	46.70%	2,788,759	46.30%	2,902,857	45.90%	2,951,310	45.70%	2,772,211	45.20%	2,809,979	44.80%
Nonlabor Components	2,047,356	45.90%	2159281	45.90%	2,279,373	46.60%	2,265,772	46.00%	2,308,118	47.00%	2,400,490	44.40%
Large Business GDP	5,443,589	53.70%	5,781,123	53.90%	6,025,888	53.80%	6,165,202	54.20%	5,971,081	54.00%	6,465,158	55.40%
Compensation	3,029,170	53.30%	3,234,894	53.70%	3,418,722	54.10%	3,505,231	54.30%	3,365,906	54.80%	3,455,528	55.20%
Nonlabor Components	2,414,419	54.10%	2,546,229	54.10%	2,607,166	53.40%	2,659,971	54.00%	2,605,175	53.00%	3,009,630	55.60%

Big Data for Small Business

"PROGRAM CHANGE: BIG DATA FOR SMALL BUSINESS ($1.9M / 9 FTE) Small businesses are a critical element of the overall economy and are often at the leading edge of risk-taking, entrepreneurship, and economic growth. Yet, unlike large corporations who have staffs of economists, advisors, and consultants to assist in interpreting and understanding the economy and guiding investments, small businesses largely depend on limited publicly-available data. Recognizing this, and the Department’s role in supporting small business growth and decision-making, as well as the need for more insight into the health of the small business sector, BEA proposes a new suite of small business data products. To inform policy, as well as Main Street decision-making, BEA proposes to expand data on small business by developing a Small Business Satellite Account including a new Small Business GDP to track the overall growth and health of America’s small business sector. This will be a key new measure, offering insight into the leading edge of the economy, as small businesses are often the first to react to growth or contraction in their sectors or regions, often reacting to changes in policy before larger corporations. Gaining such insight will also fulfill a key lesson learned from the 2008 financial crisis in terms of expanding the granularity of data on business activity. In addition to the new Small Business GDP measure, the small business satellite account will present new data on the distribution of small businesses by size of employment and sales; legal form of business, taxes, and net income; by industry; and by region of the country. This data will provide meaningful descriptions and the ability to understand trends over time regarding the changes in composition, industry, and geography of the small business sector. In addition to supporting good public policy at the national level, these data will also be of substantial value to state and local government as well as business development officials in understanding their regional economic dynamics. Coupled with BEA’s other products, such as GDP by State and Real State Personal Income, these new statistics will represent a wealth of new information to guide small business growth and policy. Beyond the public policy arena, expanding the Department’s data offerings to this essential constituency will only further enhance the ability of America’s entrepreneurs to innovate, grow, and lead successful businesses. There are no risks to the development and production of new data, and particularly not as it relates to a new satellite account focusing on small businesses. In this case, particularly given that no new data ESA - 26 EXHIBIT 12 – 15 collection is proposed (the new account will be built from existing, primarily administrative, data), and thus no additional burden will be placed on businesses to develop the necessary data. The opportunities presented by this proposal are considerable given the well-defined record of accomplishment of accurate, reliable, official statistical data providing the knowledge basis for economic growth as well as smart decisions in the public policy sector. Further, the benefit of this initiative to the Department goes to the heart of the Department’s role in economic policy – the Department is the primary source of actionable statistics on the state of the economy. Along with the daily provision of weather information, the weekly issuance of economic indicators is one of the Department’s most important and visible functions. Expanding the Department’s data offerings to such an important constituency is a highly valuable proposition for both the Department as well as policy and business sectors. The risk of not pursuing this proposal is perpetuating the continued lack of direct knowledge of the economic health of the small business sector and what that sector can tell us about the health of the overall economy. There is a clear need and desire for this information, as demonstrated by multiple efforts over the years by SBA and various trade associations to develop similar data sets. BEA is uniquely suited to develop this data set given its role as the custodian of the nation’s economic accounts. Further, data on small businesses published by BEA will have the official imprimatur of BEA as well as the full, symmetric, and broad access to the data that is true for all BEA data products. Also of importance is that, as a BEA data set, the Small Business Satellite Account will provide data in a consistent times series, as well as in a format and methodology consistent with all of BEA’s accounts thus allowing expanded analysis in full context. Given the role and importance of small businesses in economic growth and recovery, the addition of new and better information to assist small business decision-making and investment will only serve to support small business success. This is an outstanding opportunity for the Department to expand its service offering to this critical constituency. Costs are largely personnel in nature, with a $500k expected expenditure on data purchase. ESA - 27 EXHIBIT 12 – 15 Targets without increase FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Score on Customer Satisfaction Survey Greater than 4.0 Greater than 4.0 Greater than 4.0 Greater than 4.0 Greater than 4.0 Complete all Major Strategic Plan milestones related to improving the economic accounts Successfully complete related milestones Targets with increase FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 Score on Customer Satisfaction Survey Greater than 4.0 Greater than 4.1 Greater than 4.1 Greater than 4.1 Greater than 4.1 Complete all Major Strategic Plan milestones related to improving the economic accounts Successfully complete additional milestones specifically tied to initiative goals Statement of Need and Economic Benefits The additional economic statistics resulting from the implementation of this proposal will provide policy makers, the Administration, and the Department of Commerce with key information to assess the economic health and capacity of the small business sector to engage in economic activity. Small businesses comprise a large portion of the business sector in the U.S. and are often the leading edge of economic growth and contraction; yet no current Federal statistical programs exist to provide a complete picture of the small business sector. While some features of the sector are measured in varying ways, this proposal will pull them together into a concise picture, allowing policy makers and business leaders to assess and anticipate small business economic capacity and respond accordingly. Specific economic benefits of this investment: • As has been demonstrated repeatedly since the introduction of regular, consistent, publicsector economic data in the 1930s, detailed and quality economic statistics contribute significantly to the overall stability of the economy, which itself contributes to economic growth. Specific cost savings: • While this proposal will not result in cost savings to BEA, it will result in significantly improved economic statistics. These improved and expanded statistics will provide the right information to develop policies and affect business investments that will improve U.S. competitiveness and create new jobs.

ESA - 28 EXHIBIT 12 – 15 Possible return on investment: • The return on investment to the Bureau, and the nation, is significant, as this initiative will serve to fill notable existing gaps in official government statistics and will provide highly valuable new detail on the small business sector, its composition, employment, and growth by region and industry. Of great value to economic policy makers, this new data will also be of high value to the business community, in particular small businesses. Major corporations have staffs of economists, advisors, and consultants assisting in interpreting and understanding the economy and guiding investments – small businesses do not. • Better statistics allow policies to be more accurately calibrated and optimized by permitting a more accurate assessment of their costs and benefits. The potential gains from this initiative will certainly far exceed the relatively small cost. Schedule and Milestones: FY16: Research and develop methodology; conduct outreach to stakeholders to gain additional information; and expand collaboration with other Federal agency stakeholders. FY17: Publish methodology papers and develop initial estimates; present and secure endorsement of methodology and initial estimates from BEA Advisory Committee FY18: Publish prototype satellite account FY19: Publish official data series Deliverables: Papers, prototype data series and final official data series published on an annual basis. ESA - 29 EXHIBIT 12 – 15 PROGRAM CHANGE PERSONNEL DETAIL (Actual Dollars) Budget Program: Bureau of Economic Analysis Sub-program: National Economic Accounts Program Change: Big Data for Small Business Title Band Interval Number Annual Salary Total Salary Senior Economist V 1 1 152,087 152,087 Senior Economist IV 1 2 128,575 257,150 Economist III 1 3 87,411 262,233 Economist II 1 4 64,633 258,532 IT Specialist III 1 2 92,802 185,604 Total 12 1,115,606 Less Lapse (3) (278,902) Total Full-time permanent (FTE) 9 836,704 2015 Pay Adjustment (1.0%) 8,367 2016 Pay Adjustment (1.3%) 10,986 Total 856,057 Personnel Data Full-time Equivalent Employment: Full-time permanent 9 Other than full-time permanent 0 Total 9 Authorized Positions: Full-time permanent 12 Other than full-time permanent 0 ESA - 30 EXHIBIT 12 – 15 PROGRAM CHANGE DETAIL BY OBJECT CLASS (Dollars in Thousands) Budget Program: Bureau of Economic Analysis Sub-program: National Economic Accounts Program Change: Big Data for Small Business FY 2016 FY 2016 Object Class Increase Total Program 11.0 Personnel compensation 11.1 Full-time permanent 856 856 11.3 Other than full-time permanent 0 0 11.5 Other personnel compensation 0 0 11.8 Special personnel services payments 0 0 11.9 Total personnel compensation 856 856 12.0 Civilian personnel benefits 242 242 13.0 Benefits for former personnel 0 0 21.0 Travel and transportation of persons 9 9 22.0 Transportation of things 0 0 23.1 Rental payments to GSA 0 0 23.2 Rental Payments to others 0 0 23.3 Communications, utilities and miscellaneous charges 7 7 24.0 Printing and reproduction 0 0 25.1 Advisory and assistance services 0 0 25.2 Other services 58 58 25.3 Purchases of goods & services from Gov't accounts 582 582 25.4 Operation and maintenance of facilities 0 0 25.5 Research and development contracts 0 0 25.6 Medical care 0 0 25.7 Operation and maintenance of equipment 0 0 25.8 Subsistence and support of persons 0 0 26.0 Supplies and materials 39 39 31.0 Equipment 125 125 99.0 Total obligations 1,918 1,918"

Taken from pages 26-31 of this report.

Survey Respondents on Small Business Issues

Survey	Date	Labor Markets	Capital	Sales	General Outlook	Data
SBET February 2016	February 2016	42% of businesses in the survey report few or no qualified applicants for a position that they were trying to fill	4% of small business owners surveyed reported that company borrowing needs were not met	11% cite weak sales as their principal business problem	Spending and hiring plans fell as expectations for growth in real sales volumes declined	(N=2194, Data was obtained from membership files of the NFIB)
Small Business Owner report	Fall 2015	67% planned to hire 12+ employees within 2015	46% of small businesses surveyed cite credit availability as their primary concern	28% of businesses say they will use recently acquired funding to develop a new product or service within the next year	56% say they expect the US economy to improve within the next 12 months 72% of small businesses expect their revenue to increase for the year	(N=1,001 small business owners in the US with annual revenue $100,000<x<$4,999,999 and employing between 2<x<99 employees)
WellsFargo survey	January 2016	26% of small businesses expect to hire in Q1 2016 66% of businesses expect the number of jobs to stay the same 11% of businesses say that hiring and retaining qualified staff is their most pressing problem	19% of businesses responded that obtaining credit was difficult 5% of say cash flow and financial stability as the company's biggest problem 4% of businesses surveyed speculate credit availability may be prohibiting company growth	14% experienced difficulty attracting customers in Q1 2016 38% of businesses surveyed stated a positive revenue increase in Q1 2016	67% of small businesses regard their financial situation as good or very good in Q1 2016 71% expect a positive financial future within the next 12 months 8% of small businesses say that the economy is the principal problem their business is facing	(N=600 small business owners in Q1 2016)
WSJ survey	January 2016	54% of businesses surveyed said they expect firm size to increase	40% of businesses reported that they expect their firm's fixed investment expenditures to increase during the next 12 mo.	73% report an expected sales increase within the year 54% of firms expect their profitability to improve	Investments in new plant and equipment have fallen to their lowest level in more than two years 20% of firms expect the economy to worsen in the year ahead—the highest level in more than two years.
NY Fed Survey	2014	27% of businesses reported an increase in their full time staff 15% reported a decrease in their full time staff 58% of respondents reported no change in their employee base	23% of businesses reported 10-25K of debt 62% of businesses had applied for <100K of financing 41% responded they'd sought financing from a large regional bank	35% of respondents reported increasing revenues and positive profitability 23% of businesses said they'd experienced difficulty in attracting customers	29% of businesses reported personal savings as their primary financing source 29% of businesses operated at a loss 13% of respondents said the increasing costs of running their business was their principal concern	10 states of coverage: Alabama, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee with businesses <500.